Beware of Ferrer

The draw for the Rogers Cup in Toronto has just been released, and it features some intriguing matches - as well as byes for the top eight seeds, which, as we have discussed are bad. I wonder how many of those top eight we will see fall in the second round - which for them is the first?

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Not Federer, I am quite certain - as I have picked him to win in the ATP bracket challenge, and my boy never disappoints. Blessedly, he's not in the same half as Djokovic. Not because I don't want to see them play - I want to see Roger put the two hoof beatdown on Novak so bad it's not funny - but maybe next tournament. Or the Olympics. Or both. And hey, they might meet in the final - that's what happened last year. But if that happens this year, I am positive the result will be different. Positive, I say!

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Along the way, my beloved Federer could run into a couple of young troublemakers that I recently featured as Stars of the Future (tm.) He has a possible third round (second for him... stupid byes) with Ernests Gulbis, and a possible quarter final with Marin Cilic. I don't think either of these boys has what it takes to beat the Rog quite yet - that's why they're Stars of the Future and not Stars of the Present - but it should be interesting to see how those two go, if they make it that far. I'd like to see them play well - though my heart, as always, is aboard the Federer Express.

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Even though Nadal and Djokovic are in the same half, I've actually picked someone different to come through to the final. I think everyone in that half should beware of Ferrer - hey, that rhymes! That could be his new slogan or something. Anyway, David is my finals pick. He could meet Rafa in the quarters, and we know he has the game to take him down on hard courts - look at the US Open last year. This is traditionally the time of year when Rafa begins falling away and becomes a bit of a non-event. This year has been different in many respects, but I'm not sure if Rafa can break this trend quite yet.

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I've picked an upset for Djokovic in the third round against Robin Soderling. I don't know whether or not this is just wishful thinking on my part. This is quite possible. But Soderling really does seem due a big break - he's such a dangerous player. If Djokovic does get through Soderling, however, he could have a potential quarter final with Marat Safin, and boy, wouldn't THAT be interesting. That's quite a tough little quarter, actually - not only is there Djokovic and Safin and Soderling, there's Murray and Wawrinka and Ancic, and the dark horse Querrey, as well as up and comer Thomaz Bellucci. It'll be REALLY interesting to see who makes it through to the semi there. My bet is that it won't be one of the random two qualifiers, but you never know. Verdasco is always a shot, as is Canas, and there's Dancevic and Bolelli as well, who don't suck. Man, looking at it, that quarter is MAJORLY tough. I have picked Soderling to make it through, but I don't have a very good history with these bracket challenges, so don't listen to me.

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So my three semi finalists so far have been Federer, Ferrer and Soderling - who is the fourth, I hear you ask? That would be GI Mikhail, Mr. Youzhny, who, as we know, is pretty good on hard courts, even if he could use a bit of an image makeover. This quarter is considerably weaker than the Djokovic quarter, though it isn't weak by any means. The significant seeds are Davydenko and Blake, neither of whom have been especially impressive of late - though you can never count Kolya out. Look at Miami. But I am feeling the Youzhny feeling here... it's characterised by the irresistible urge to salute.

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So will Jodi be right? Or will she, as usual, totally suck at the ATP bracket challenge? Read for the next week and you will find out.

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In brief coverage of the tournaments actually going on this week, we have some interesting final match ups... in the sense that they're not really people you expect to make finals a whole lot, but it's not like we had the cream of the crop playing this week. In Kitzbuhel, we have local boy Jurgen Melzer against Juan Martin del Potro. I doubted Juan Martin last week - I believe I gave him next to no shot against Gasquet - and I was wrong, so it's del Potro all the way here. And also I know nothing about Jurgen Melzer, as discussed yesterday... actually, he knocked out Potito 'Potato' Starace in the semi. Go figure.

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In Amersfoort, we have Steve Darcis against Albert Montanes. What a tantalising match that will be. I am so excited I just can't hide it. I'm about to lose control and I think I like it.

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(That was a joke, in case I wasn't clear enough.)

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I'm going to say Darcis purely on the grounds that he won last year so this is a good place for him. But I wouldn't listen to me.

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In Umag, we have Fernando Verdasco against Igor Andreev - finally, players I know something about! This two fit into different categories in my mind - I consistently underestimate Nando, and overestimate Igor. I really, REALLY like Andreev's game - but he suffers from the common Russian malady of inconsistency. However, this is his second final in a row, so he's got the hot hand at the moment - so I'm going with Andreev. But never underestimate Nando... even though I always do.

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And then in Indy, this week's sensible tournament, we have Simon against Tursunov. I'm going with Tursunov because he won here last year, has a great hard court game, and, oh yeah, he's one of my favourites. But Simon is another Nando for me - I underestimate him a lot. However, Tursunov has really proven himself in the heat - he won Sydney this year in absolutely sweltering conditions (I should know, I was there!) and then I think he won Mumbai last year. So I'm going Dmitry all the way.

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Oh, and women's tennis... um... no comment.

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Today's Results

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Austrian Open (Kitzbuhel)

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Jurgen Melzer def. Potito Starace, 6-4 6-7 (6-8) 6-3

Juan Martin del Potro def. Victor Hanescu, 6-3 7-6 (7-5)

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Dutch Open Tennis (Amersfoort)

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Steve Darcis def. Marc Gicquel, 7-6 (7-3) 3-6 7-5

Albert Montanes def. Oscar Hernandez, 6-1 6-3

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Studena Croatia Open (Umag)

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Fernando Verdasco def. Fabio Fognini, 6-1 6-3

Igor Andreev def. Maximo Gonzalez, 6-2 7-6 (7-2)

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Indianapolis Tennis Championships (Indianapolis)

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Dmitry Tursunov def. Paul Capdeville, 3-6 6-3 6-1

Gilles Simon def. Sam Querrey, 6-3 4-6 6-4

Dmitry Tursunov def. James Blake, 4-6 6-3 6-4

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Bank of the West Classic (Stanford)

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Aleksandra Wozniak def. Serena Williams, 6-2 3-1 retired

Marion Bartoli def. Ai Sugiyama, 6-3 6-3

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Gastein Ladies (Bad Gastein)

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Pauline Parmentier def. Agnes Szavay, 6-4 6-2

Lucie Hradecka def. Mariya Koryttseva, 6-3 6-2