Don't Cry For Me, Miss Safina

I don't want to cast aspersions on Rafa Nadal - he has undoubtedly been the best player on tour this year, whatever my personal preferences may be - but he is just not so hot right now. I thought that he'd played out his early kinks with that good victory ove Troicki in the third round, but then against Querrey today, the kinks were back. I mean, he still won, and won pretty comfortably when it came down to it, but he wasn't the Rafa we've seen over the past six or so months. This wasn't the man who won the French Open and Wimbledon and the Olympics back to back. This man... well, he was a bit tired.

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And I can get why he's tired. I mean, come on, the scheduling is insane. Add to that the Querrey factor - the guy may not be ranked that high, but he's not a pushover, and he was playing at home in front of an adoring crowd - and you can see why Rafa's not playing at his best. But if he wants to win the tournament, he's going to have to lift. While Fish could emulate his countryman Querrey and take a set off Rafa in the quarters, I don't see him doing much more than that - but when Rafa gets to the semis, he's going to face either Juan Martin del Potro or Andy Murray, either or whom will eat him alive if he doesn't pick it up. Murray, I feel, has a real chance - he played pretty damn spectacularly to beat Djokovic and win the Cincincatti. And we know the Scottish kid has what it takes to beat members of the Big Three - I don't know about Rafa himself, but he's certainly beaten Djokovic and Federer in recent times.

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Speaking of Murray, wasn't he in scintillating form today? Sure, lovely Stan Wawrinka did not play to the best of his ability, but Murray was just awesome. I'm not a Murray fan, I have to say, but the kid's got game. I would not be surprised at all to see him make the final. If/when he faces Rafa, I don't think we're going to see a repeat of the Wimbledon match they played. Rafa is not going to be able to have it his own way with Andy. Remember when they played at the Australian Open - I think it was last year? It was a fabulous match that really went the distance - in the end, it pretty much came down to Rafa having the better legs and Murray running out of steam. If they go five sets again, I don't think we'll see Murray's fitness have such a negative impact. He's certainly picked it up - and, unlike Rafa, he hasn't played tennis solidly for six months. I don't want to impugn Rafa's fitness - in fact, I would go so far as to say he is one of the fittest players on the tour, maybe even the fittest - but no one can do that and not feel the effects. And we've seen him feeling the effects. So what can Murray pull out the bag?

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I'm sort of assuming Murray will be the random semi finalist here - with his form, he deserves to be - but that's not to rule out the del Potro possibility. We all know how hot del Potro has been of late. However, he hasn't been 100% sparkling here - a few five set matches here and there - but on the flip side, he's in the frickin' quarters. I don't think he's ever done that before. I shouldn't judge him by Federesque standards - my bad. But I think Murray'll get him. Del Potro is hot right now, but if anyone is due a big showing at a Slam, it's Murray. It's his turn, really.

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And we can't forget Mardy Fish either. Everyone ruled him out at Indian Wells or Miami or wherever it was when he played Federer in the semis, and he came out and won the thing. Best of five sets is a bit of a different story, but with the home crowd behind him and Rafa not playing as Rafa does, maybe Fish can hook a big one. (Sorry for the pun.) This is Fish's best ever showing here - it would be a bit of a fairy tale to see him go the distance.

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Speaking of Americans, one match I am very much looking forward to is the Roddick/Gonzalez match tomorrow. That one is going to be a corker. I know Roddick is the higher seed and has the home crowd support, but I think Gonzalez might just get him. Fernando hasn't been playing quite as well as he did that time at the Australian Open where he made the final, but he's been big in form recently, and it'd be nice to see him put up a good showing. And wouldn't a Djokovic/Gonzalez quarter be an awesome match? I would like that one enormously - mostly because I think Gonzalez would win.

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And going back to fairy tales, I would dearly love to see Gilles Muller make the quarters by taking out Davydenko. Kolya seems to have got a little bit of his mojo back, but that doesn't mean I am any more impressed with him. And I like the guts of this Muller guy. And since when does Luxemborg ever win anything? Go Gilles.

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And obviously I want to see Federer beat Andreev. That should be a good match, actually - Andreev is good enough to test Federer, but I don't know if he's good enough to actually put him in danger. That said, I won't count my chickens - I remember Tipsarevic. Oh, do I remember Tipsarevic. But I like the look of Roger right now. If he can put away Stepanek - someone who he has had trouble with in the past - in easy straights, then he's in pretty decent form.

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Oh, and women. Yay Dinara and being through! Actually, did anyone see the Tennis Australia headline this morning? I ain't got nothing on their bad puns. 'Don't Cry For Me Safina.' Apparently she started crying before her match and couldn't stop until her coach came and calmed her down for some inexplicable reason. Go figure. That article also featured the immortal line 'sobs turn to lobs.' I like a good pun here and there - I went to town with curtain/Kuerten puns (just like everyone else) when Guga retired, but really, isn't there a place where you have to draw the line?

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It's looking like a Williams/Safina semi - though which Williams will be an interesting question. I'm feeling Serena, but honestly, they're pretty interchangeable to me. Whichever one does get through, I'm still picking Dinara to win. Apparently - on the ever constant rankings question - she can become #1 if she wins and Jankovic doesn't reach the semis. Here's hoping Jelena loses. Not that I dislike Jelena or anything, but Dinara deserves it way more than she does right now.

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And yeah, I stole the Safina pun and used it as a title. Puns that awful just cannot be denied. But you will notice, however, that mine scans better. I, at least, understand that 'Argentina' has four syllables. Take that. Ha.

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Small victories. Small, small victories.

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Today's Results

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US Open (Flushing Meadows)

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Men's Draw

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Rafael Nadal def. Sam Querrey, 6-2 5-7 7-6 (7-2) 6-3

Andy Murray def. Stanislas Wawrinka, 6-1 6-3 6-3

Juan Martin del Potro def. Kei Nishikori, 6-3 6-4 6-3

Mardy Fish def. Gael Monfils, 7-5 6-2 6-2

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Women's Draw

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Dinara Safina def. Anna-Lena Groenefeld, 7-5 6-0

Serena Williams def. Severine Bremond, 6-2 6-2

Venus Williams def. Agineszka Radwanska, 6-1 6-3

Flavia Pennetta def. Amelie Mauresmo, 6-3 6-0