Saturday, May 23, 2009

All Dinara, All The Way

I've promised a preview of the women's draw and I intend to deliver, but first up - whoa, whoa, whoa, Alexandra Dulgheru! Where did you come from? What are you doing, going and winning titles while ranked #201 in the world? The little blurb on the WTA website said that she nearly lost in the first round of qualifying, and here she is winning the whole tournament! Good on you, girl - may your rise up the rankings be speedy!
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Now, over to the women's draw at the biggest, reddest event of the year - Roland Garros. In the top quarter of the draw we have Dinara Safina, who has to go into Roland Garros - the favourite - I don't think anone would gainsay me on that one. She's won two whatever-you-now-call-Tier-I tournaments in a row and is looking as determined as I've ever seen her: while Serena 'the real #1' Williams hasn't won a match on the red stuff all year. (More on Serena later). Dinara is both my sentimental and actual pick for Roland Garros, but let's check out her competition in this quarter.
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Ana Ivanovic is in there - she and Dinara could potentially meet in the quarters - but I wouldn't put any money on seeing a rematch of last year's final, what with Ana being injured and, you know, a headcase. Much more likely, in my opinion, is Victoria Azarenka, though she hasn't been extremely impressive on clay thus far. Or there is last year's surprise package, Carla Suarez Navarro, who also came good at the Aussie Open. Her back hand has been compared to Henin, who triumped so much and so often at Roland Garros - could Carla do the same? Maybe. But in reality, I don't think any of the girls are going past the quarters. All Dinara, all the way here, if you ask me.
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The second quarter is spear-headed by #3 seed Venus Williams who, if you ask me, stands a much better chance of winning the title than her sister does, even though she'd definitely have to go through Safina to get there. A Dinara/Venus semi could well turn out to be the match of the tournament, just like that slugfest they had a few weeks back. But Venus is not the only big name in this section - an absolute dark horse pick could be Sabine Lisicki, who has a tough opener against Lucie Safarova. Zvonareva is in there, and the eternally unlucky-in-Paris Amelie Mauresmo. Oh, and Sharapova, but I don't think we're quite at Slam-winning level yet with ol' Maria. But I've got to be conventional and pick Venus to come through this section, I think - even if it's just for the hope of seeing that throwdown semi.
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The third quarter, by my reckoning, might be the weakest - the two major seeds are Jankovic and Dementieva, and if Jankovic can't come through this quarter, then I absolutely despair of her. Sure, Elegant Elena might give her a run for it, but she's been pretty unremarkable on clay thus far. I'm not picking either of them to come through, though - this is Caroline Wozniacki's chance to make a big splash, and I reckon she's got the game to do it.
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And then we have the fourth quarter, and the problem of Serena. Any sane person would pick against her, because, hello, hasn't won a match on clay all year, lost in the third round to Katarina Srebotnik last year, yada yada yada. But it goes against the grain to pick an early exit for Serena, because... well, because she's Serena. Can you imagine anyone else claiming to be the real #1, then not winning a match while the actual #1 wins a couple of big tournaments... and still being disposed to believe her? She's a strange phenomenon.
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Kuznetsova is in this quarter as well, and Flavia Pennetta, who could be a real chance, but I'm going to go out on a limb and pick Patty Schnyder. I like what I've seen out of her lately, and she has a recent win over Serena in her hand of cards... and I think she can do it.
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My finals pick? Safina vs. Wozniacki. I'm fully prepared to be wrong on the Wozniacki front, but not on the Safina one. My girl Dinara is going all the way!
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Today's Results
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ARAG ATP World Team Championships (Dusseldorf)
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Viktor Troicki def. Rainer Schuettler, 6-4 7-6 (7-5)
Janko Tipsarevic def. Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2 6-4
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Interwetten Austrian Open Kitzbuhel (Kitzbuhel)
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Guillermo Garcia-Lopez def. Julien Benneteau, 3-7 7-6 (7-1) 6-3
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Warsaw Open (Warsaw)
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Alexandra Dulgheru def. Alona Bondarenko, 7-6 (7-3) 3-6 6-0
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Internationaux de Strasbourg (Strasbourg)
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Aravane Rezai def. Lucie Hradecka, 7-6 (7-2) 6-1

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