Whiplash

So it was largely a day where the unexpected remained unrealised in Monte Carlo. Rafa won (duh). Roger won (also unsurprising). Ferrer and Melzer won. Even Andy Murray won, though I don't know if we can necessarily call that 'expected'... but in a world where we all know Rafa is going to win the tournament anyway, pretty much everyone did what they were supposed to.

With a couple of exceptions.

I'm going to start with the lesser exception first, because really, I don't know if anyone ever actually expects Gael Monfils to win. There is always a possibility that he will - and he does often enough that he's seeded in this tournament - but it is never, ever a surprise when he loses. Even when it's to a qualifier. I'm pretty sure that qualifier-conqueror, Frederico Gil, is a specialist dirtballer, but even still... it could have been some random grass court specialist ranked #684748 in the world and there's still a chance Monfils would go down. That's just Monfils.

But you who is supposed to be consistent? People that played in the Wimbledon final last year, and who have been ranked in the top ten for a while now. I hope you're trembling in your boots, Tomas Berdych, because if you play like this when Wimbledon comes round again, you are going to get booted out of the top ten so fast that you'll get whiplash.

Seriously, I feel like people have been waiting for Berdych to 'arrive' for, like, ever, and when he had that Roland Garros/Wimbledon run last year, everyone thought his time had come at last. But you know what? I'm getting more and more confident that that brief period of tennis excellence from Berdych was a BIG FAT FLUKE. Because has he lived up to it ever since?

Not even a little bit, not even at all.

He lost to Ivan Ljubicic, who is, let's be fair, a very, very good player. But the guys at the top of the game - your Federer, your Nadal, your Djokovic - they didn't get where they are just by occasionally losing to 'very, very good players'. They have what it takes. And Berdych, it appears, does not. And at this stage? I don't think he ever will.

Ladders

So Andy Murray won a match. While sporting one of the most ridiculous hairdos ever seen on a tennis court. Um, like, well done Andy. And stuff.

We all know that I am not exactly Murray's biggest fan, but I genuinely would like to see him get a few wins in here on the clay. The hardcourt season was a total wash and I don't know if those demons are going away. But when the tour gets on clay, I think the pressure lifts from Murray's shoulders. No one expects him to perform on the red stuff. We've all heard for years that Murray is capable of winning in Australia, in the US, oh yeah, AND DEFINITELY at SW19, but at Roland Garros? No way. And that, I think, really lightens Murray's load.

So, yeah, I wouldn't be surprised if Andy gets a few good wins in on the clay. I would also not be surprised to see a grass court collapse once the immense burden of being a Brit at Wimbledon descends once more. That's the time that will make or break Murray (for 2011, at least). He's been in a hole, and while the clay season can be a bit of a ladder out if he plays well, it's not until the grass that we'll know whether he truly has made it out. The clay season is almost irrelevant, in its way, so he may as well make the best of it he can.

Fernando Verdasco was all like 'oh yeah, I'm just making the best of it I can on the hardcourts until REAL TENNIS starts, I WILL SHOW YOU, MILOS RAONIC RAAAAAAR'... and then he lost tamely to Disco Tommy. Pride and the fall, Nando. It's a thing.

This loss sends Verdasco nosediving out of the top ten - FINALLY. How long has it taken?! Geez. Andy Murray might not have won a match since Australia (till today), but at least he's still a little bit relevant. Verdasco just seems to be devolving further and further into a pit of irrelevance every day. And he doesn't have a ladder.

Be Merry, Be Free

I promise that when I quit my job (right before Roland Garros begins!) I will be better at that daily updating thing I had going.

YAY FEDERER WON YAY THIS MAKES ME HAPPY GO OFF AND BE HAPPY TOO.

Modest Achievements (and Immodest Failings)

In the grand old tradition (which I started yesterday) of talking about TWO WHOLE PLAYERS in one post, today I'm... going to talk about two players. Wow, really ruined that surprise. Oops.

The two lucky dudes on whom the glorious honour of my educated opinion are being bestowed today are Richard Gasquet and Nikolay Davydenko. I don't think their careers are directly comparable in the long run - Gasquet, as we both know, is quite a bit younger than Kolya and if talent was the only ingredient in the sundae that is a tennis player, then he would blow Kolya off the court - but they both have been around for a while, both have been in the top ten, and both are dudes on whom I have a little something something to say today. So there.

I don't think it's a secret to say that Richard Gasquet is one of the biggest wasted opportunities in tennis today. He is a typical French player - talented to the point of absurdity, capable of incredible - almost alien - tennis, and yet so inconsistent it can make you want to scratch your eyes out. I always think about Gasquet in the same box as Berdych - or at least Berdych prior to 2010. Gasquet made a run to the Wimbledon semis once, I think, but that's about it. I think that Berdych's one final is the one final he'll ever make at Slam level. Sketchy and inconsistent and... yeah, all those things.

But I actually want to say nice things about Richou today. I think he has actually played really well this year. He hasn't had a single first round exit - which for someone as skittish as him, is really something. He hasn't beaten anyone EPIC AND MAJOR OMG, but he's put together some nice streaks of matches - his run to the semis in Dubai, for example, where he beat Gilles Simon, or his run to the quarters in Indian Wells, where he came up against the blisteringly hot Novak Djokovic.

I'm not saying that he's going to go on and win Wimbledon or anything like that. But this is nice stuff to see from someone as traditionally inconsistent as Richou. Modest accomplishments, but solid ones. They're the ones that will earn you points. He just won over Denis Istomin in Monte Carlo, making another tournament where he hasn't lost in the first round. Well done, Richou.

And then we come to Kolya.

He's the opposite of Gasquet - a player who has made the most of talents that are a little bit limited. We know that he's challenged the great ones. We know he's done amazing things. But right now, he is having the most godawful year, poor thing. He just lost to Robin Haase in Monte Carlo, and his ranking is falling and falling. He's lost more times than he's won this year. He probably won't be seeded in Roland Garros, and I'd call him a dangerous floater, but who knows how dangerous he'll really be?

Haase is only the last of the players this year who've beaten Kolya who shouldn't have. After getting all the way to the final in Doha, Kolya has had a shocker of a year. What's he going to do to turn things round? I don't know. People are shouting 'retire', but I think there's more tennis in Kolya yet. We just need to find a way to winkle it out somehow.

Into The Ravine

It has taken a long, long time for this to happen, but I have fallen off the Ernests Gulbis bandwagon. Ker-plunk. I am off. And the bandwagon is merrily wheeling away into the distance... actually, no. It's bouncing and jolting across interminable potholes and I'm pretty sure it's about to fall into a ravine. Hence the jumping off. I'm not going down with it.

If there has ever been a tennis player who lacked mental fortitude more than Ernests Gulbis, I bet I've never heard on them, on account of of they never would have won anything ever. Gulbis is very, very talented - ain't no one denying that. But he's also clearly lazy and extremely mentally volatile, and there is only so far talent can take you. He is the least disciplined player in all aspects of his game I have ever seen. And it is such a waste, because those crazy-talented players are the best kind to watch. In his way, he is like a skittish Svetlana Kuznetsova - and when Sveta is your benchmark for consistency, problems: you has them.

It's a little odd to write this article when Gulbis has just pulled what is technically an upset victory over also-skittish Alexandr Dolgopolov. But there is a difference between Dolgopolov's brand of crazy and Gulbis's, and that difference means that, in the long run, Sascha is going to be the more successful one. Bet you any money.

Sascha can go hot and cold in huge extremes - look at his match against Soderling in Australia. He got pummelled to pieces in the first set - 6-1 - and then suddenly he was on FREAKING FIRE and Robin Soderling was walking off the court in defeat, wondering what the hell happened, where the kid had come from and who he thought he was anyway. No one will ever call Dolgopolov the model of consistency. He's almost Safinesque that way - though far less explosive. He seems like a pretty chill guy, despite his massive swings. But he's taken his massive talent and, with his coach Jack, applied some discipline (albeit of the long-haired boho variety). And this year has shown that that works.

Gulbis, on the other hand? Anyone who saw the semis in Sydney knows just how much he can do and just how lazily he can throw it away. He has a huge talent but he seems too lazy to do anything with it. I wrote a few years back, when I was on that bandwagon, that I expected him to be top ten in a year - two, max. And he hasn't even come close. Not because he doesn't have the talent - he does - but because he doesn't seem to have the desire to do that much with it.

Gulbis may have won against Dolgopolov today. These things happen. But in the long run, Sascha is the one with the will to win, and if one of them is going into the top ten, it's Sascha all the way. Ernie may have won this battle, but Sascha will win the war.

Courts Not Red Yet

My heart is in Monte Carlo. The tour is not. When these two stars align... there will be blog.

Still Not Clay

Back when the courts are red!