Whiplash

So it was largely a day where the unexpected remained unrealised in Monte Carlo. Rafa won (duh). Roger won (also unsurprising). Ferrer and Melzer won. Even Andy Murray won, though I don't know if we can necessarily call that 'expected'... but in a world where we all know Rafa is going to win the tournament anyway, pretty much everyone did what they were supposed to.

With a couple of exceptions.

I'm going to start with the lesser exception first, because really, I don't know if anyone ever actually expects Gael Monfils to win. There is always a possibility that he will - and he does often enough that he's seeded in this tournament - but it is never, ever a surprise when he loses. Even when it's to a qualifier. I'm pretty sure that qualifier-conqueror, Frederico Gil, is a specialist dirtballer, but even still... it could have been some random grass court specialist ranked #684748 in the world and there's still a chance Monfils would go down. That's just Monfils.

But you who is supposed to be consistent? People that played in the Wimbledon final last year, and who have been ranked in the top ten for a while now. I hope you're trembling in your boots, Tomas Berdych, because if you play like this when Wimbledon comes round again, you are going to get booted out of the top ten so fast that you'll get whiplash.

Seriously, I feel like people have been waiting for Berdych to 'arrive' for, like, ever, and when he had that Roland Garros/Wimbledon run last year, everyone thought his time had come at last. But you know what? I'm getting more and more confident that that brief period of tennis excellence from Berdych was a BIG FAT FLUKE. Because has he lived up to it ever since?

Not even a little bit, not even at all.

He lost to Ivan Ljubicic, who is, let's be fair, a very, very good player. But the guys at the top of the game - your Federer, your Nadal, your Djokovic - they didn't get where they are just by occasionally losing to 'very, very good players'. They have what it takes. And Berdych, it appears, does not. And at this stage? I don't think he ever will.

Life On Show Court 2

Today was my last day at the Australian Open - sadface. I finished it off with wonderful drinks with Dootsiez and PJ from All I Need Is A Picket Fence, which was the perfect way to end what has been a wonderful tournament for me. I have had the time of my life, and you can bet your bottom dollar that I will be back for 2012 - for even longer, if I can possibly afford it!

I spent a great part of my day on Show Court 2 today - first for Almagro vs Ljubicic and then for Azarenka vs Scheepers. Herein is my report.

Almagro was playing as well as I have ever seen him on a hard court. We all know that he is the Prince of Clay, but he was absolutely on fire today against Ljubicic. If you'd asked me to place a bet before the match, I would have said Ljubicic in straights. Instead, it turned out being the other way round.

I never realised Almgaro had such massive shots - he can hit the ball HARD. I think the only person I've seen hit the ball that (noticeably) hard is Soderling. And maybe Nadal. Seriously, his strokes were MASSIVE today. He has a real flair for the passing shot and the angled forehand. And he played a totally fierce second set tiebreak. That tiebreak was the real key point in the match, and it was Almagro who held tough. I was very impressed. I totally understand how he gave Tsonga such a good run for his money last year! Actually, Almagro has a pretty decent record in Australia, and I totally get why.

Ljubicic, on the other hand, was doing something weird with his shots. I don't know if I was influenced by his grunt, which made him sound extremely like he was in pain, but he seemed to be collapsing inwards on a lot of his shots - sort of curling up, which seemed to be really hampering his movement. I don't know if I've missed, like, his entire career, and he's always played like this, but I felt very much like he was playing through big pain. I was kind of glad Almagro put him out of his misery, to tell the truth.

And then it was time for the ladies. This was the first full ladies' match I have watched outside of Rod Laver Arena, and it was suitably compelling, even if the scoreline did not suggest it.

I have not been a big fan of Azarenka in the past. I don't know if I have changed my opinion, but I was pretty impressed with her today. Scheepers possesses some big shots - like, BIG. She can hit winners like nobody's business and she has a lot of power. But Vika didn't panic and deflected all that power straight back at her. It was great tennis from Vika, combined with a bit of inexperience from her opponent, which won her this match. And in a women's draw more wide open than ever, why shouldn't it be time for Vika to make a charge?

And then it was time for Federer. I didn't have Rod Laver Arena tickets, but I watched on the big screen in Grand Slam Oval. And had twenty minor heart attacks, even though Federer was in front virtually the whole time.

Federer played this whole match like he'd left the oven on - distracted and wanting to get off as soon as possible. He managed the latter, but it was a strange, nervy match. He oscillated between extreme brilliance and Federror, his evil shadow-self. And then there was his strange obsession with the drop shot...

But he'll be right. He's Federer. And that is the truth of the matter.

I'm watched the Rod Laver Arena night session as I write this. Stan Wawrinka has just put paid to an awful Gael Monfils. Seriously, could Monfils have played any worse in this match? He possibly has the worst mentality in tennis. I came to this conclusion after watching him tank the third set against Gil the other night, and it was only reinforced tonight.

We've watched Federer and Nadal. We know that tennis champions have minds of steel. Monfils demonstrated tonight that he does not have one. He fell apart, totally and completely. He might have the talent, he might even have the game, but unless he works on what he has upstairs, he's not going anywhere.

In short, it is time for Gael Monfils and Roger Rasheed to BREAK UP. Rasheed is infecting him with douchiness.

Stan, on the other hand, played wonderfully. He may be a little douchey in his personal life - I cast no stones, I said 'may' - but his backhand is a freaking work of art. That thing is gorgeous.

And then the second Rod Laver Arena match... poor Venus. That poor girl. Poor scheduling decision, considering her injured-ness, but oh my goodness. That girl was HURTING. Get well soon, Lady V!

Advent

Hola, my reader friends! As you know, December is a bit of a quiet month in the tennis world - but the December Showdown starts today, and our coverage of it will start tomorrow. Well, when I say 'coverage', I mean, 'me talking about matches I didn't actually see', but I'm sure we can make something out of that.

So yes. This is going to be a short one today, due to lack of content.

But a few quick words on the Hopman Cup - a few months ago, they had such a sweet line up, and now they're dropping like flies. First we lost Serena, who's been replaced by Bethanie Mattek-Sands; then Steve Darcis, who has been replaced by Ruben Bemelmans (he who played Lleyton pretty tight in Davis Cup); and now Gael Monfils has got all injured.

I heartily approve of his replacement, though. Nicolas Mahut and Kristina Mladenovic might not stand a great chance of taking the trophy, but any man who can play a 70-68 fifth set is all right by me. I wonder if Nico has a hair gel endorsement yet...

Superb Serbia

Well, I did not expect this. I would have sworn that France was going to win this one. I was convinced that Llodra would have the guns to pull through and that Monfils might get a sneaky one in over Djokovic. But I was totally, utterly wrong. Sorry about that, Serbia. And congratulations.

It's hard to pick a hero for this tie - I mean, you can safely say it wasn't Tipsarevic, but beyond that, not so much. You really do have to go with Djokovic, I think, who won those crucial two points and gave Troicki a fighting chance going into the fifth and deciding rubber. You can throw Troicki's name into the ring as well - he did, after all, win that rubber - but his serve was the yippy one in the doubles. So Novak gets the honours, I think - but it was a big team effort.

Let's talk about the two matches for a second. I think they both would have been terribly anti-climactic - especially after the epic doubles match - if it wasn't, you know, the Davis Cup final. I definitely wasn't expecting Djokovic to put the hurt on Monfils the way he did. I definitely was expecting more from Monfils than he brought. It seems like he left it all on the court against Tipsarevic... he should have saved some up for this match, because with the way Tipsarevic was playing, he didn't need to use it all then.

I think the crowd definitely drove Djokovic on, but I think it also negatively affected Monfils... which it didn't in the first match, so I found this surprising. I thought that Monfils sort of enjoyed being the antagonist then. Today... not so much. Maybe it's different because it's Djokovic. I don't know. But Gael won't be too happy with himself.

And neither will Michael Llodra, and I am really sad about this one, because I would have totally backed him against either Troicki or Tipsarevic. Unlike Obradovic, I would have played Tipsarevic here, but his choice was obviously a good one, because it paid off big time. Troicki had the match of his life out there. He was definitely spurred on by the crowd here, because he had an absolute blinder. I have never, ever seen him play that well.

...and I can't remember the last time I saw Llodra play so poorly.

This one breaks my heart, because I am in love with Llodra's game. He epitomises French tennis - the flair, the style, the everything. But today he epitomised the bad side of that - the erraticness. And it was horrible to watch.

This is the kind of match that can break a man, and I will be so, so sad if it breaks Llodra. He is so much better than this. He has so much more ahead of him. Here's hoping he can just put Davis Cup behind him and rock 2011 like the French tennis god he is.

But for now, congratulations to Serbia. Talk about a fairy tale.

Serbia Gets Slapped

Okay. Now we have some action. A fightback from two sets down? That is what I'm talking about.

I bet Obradovic is fiercely glad he didn't play Djokovic here, even though the Serbs didn't get the point, because if Djokovic had gone five sets today? No way he'd be up to it against Monfils tomorrow. That just wouldn't be happening.

Troicki and Zimonjic put up a good match here - they won the first two sets, after all - but they're both going to be bitterly disappointed. To lead two sets and then go down, in front of a home crowd? Geez. That is like a slap in the face with a fish and no mistake. And if I'm Nenad 'I love doubles' Zimonjic, I am a bit annoyed about being let down by the weak serving of my partner. Because that, at the end of the day, was the clincher. So in that sense, maybe Obradovic is regretting he didn't play Djokovic. I doubt he would have got as yippy as Troicki did.

But let's talk about the dudes that really pulled it out. Clement. Llodra. I love these dudes. They might be one of my favourite doubles teams ever. They are GOOD TIMES. I don't really have a side I'm pulling for in this tie, but in terms of this match? I was pulling for these two all the way. Forget did a really good job putting these two together - though I doubt it was a rocket science decision.

What I always admire in a comeback like the one they pulled is the ability to not panic and to not give in. It must be so easy to fold when you're two sets down - the way back seems insurmountable. But for Arnaud and Michael? Not so much. They rocked it. And I bet that Serbian crowd was NOT happy.

This leaves us in a very interesting place for tomorrow. The long and short of it is that if Djokovic loses, Serbia are screwed. But let's assume that rankings hold and Djokovic beats Monfils (even though I have a sneaky suspicion Gael might pull that one out). The fifth rubber is due to be contested by Tipsarevic and Simon. But will it actually be these two?

If I'm Forget, I'm definitely considering picking Llodra, even though he played five sets today. Simon was overwhelmingly disappointing in the first singles rubber... but then, he was playing Djokovic. Llodra has had a great time of it lately and should be high on adrenaline, if on nothing else. So despite the five sets, I'm going Llodra.

But if I'm Obradovic, I'm sort of between a rock and a hard place. Troicki was definitely the weak link in the doubles, and he's coming off five sets. But then Tipsarevic was terribly disappointing in the first singles match. Neither option is particularly attractive. Yesterday, I would have got Troicki in a second. But today, I think I'm leaning towards Tipsarevic. Maybe he can make something happen through talent alone...

A Meh Beginning

Davis Cup seems to have come around surprisingly quickly this year, yesno? I remember getting tons of mileage out of it in the offseason last year. But no matter. It hasn't been especially interesting yet, so it probably doesn't deserve the space.

So we've had the singles match - Djokovic vs Simon and Tipsarevic vs Monfils, and we're locked at 1-all after two straight sets victories. While this could lead to a very exciting finish - a live fifth rubber could be awesome! - the day was somehow not that exciting.

I'll start with the second match, which was Djokovic/Simon. I'm not sure why Guy Forget played Simon here. Maybe he thought that there was no hope of winning this match anyway so he sort of tanked it a little bit? I would have played Llodra for sure. Simon never had a chance in this match, as you would well expect. There was a little excitement when he saved match points to break back to 5-5 in the third set, but then he got broken straight back, so meh. That's a good word to sum up this match, actually: meh.

It also sums up the performance of Tipsarevic. I think that, like Obradovic, I would also have picked Tipsy over Troicki here, but he just did not bring it. Monfils has had a screamer of a summer but there definitely isn't the mismatch element going on here that there was in the Djokovic match. I probably would have picked Monfils to win (if I'd realised Davis Cup was even coming up - oops) but Tipsy should have at least got a set here, I think.

Maybe he was nervous in front of his home crowd. Maybe he is just not in form. Maybe it just wasn't his day. Whatever the reason was - or whether there is a reason at all - I expected a bit more from Tipsarevic. I expect that Troicki will be played on Sunday. Llodra, too.

Excellent performance from Monfils, though. There is every possiblity that Monfils/Djokovic could be an absolute scorcher on the weekend - and if Djokovic plays doubles and doesn't get the rest, then 'meh' could be the last word on my mind.

Paris is Burning

After the rage of yesterday, the storm has passed, and I have found myself very satisfied with the outcome in Bercy. Not the Federer part, obviously - you are still in very big trouble, mister - but the Soderling victory? I am all over that like a rug.

Monfils really demonstrated in this match that he's not going to be a major force any time soon - oh sure, he'll pull some big wins, like he did yesterday, but he's missing the magic ingredient, which is consistency. Against the Swedish barrage yesterday, he panicked, rushed and crumbled. He admitted as much in his post match presser.

I mean, I can understand why he was nervous - he was playing in the biggest final of his career in front of his home crowd! - but he really needs to get a handle on his fragile mentality before he's going to challenge for these matches regularly. And much as I think they're stupid, maybe he should have indulged his stuntman theatrics a bit more. They seem to fire him up... but maybe that would have just made him more jittery. I don't know. But anyway, that is the aspect of his game that is lacking.

But this was an awesome victory for Soderling. Let's talk about how awesome he is for a mo, because he is really VERY awesome. I can't believe this is his first Masters win, but I am SO glad he has one now. It is the perfect way to cap off what has been an awesome year - and, in fact, two years - for him. He is really proving that he's not just a Roland Garros wonder - he is a force to be reckoned with ALL THE TIME. But especially in Paris. He sets that damn town ON FIRE.

And now he's #4 in the world. I love it. Take that, Toothface.

Lord Have Bercy

Lord have mercy (heh, Bercy) on you, Mr Federer, if I catch you any time soon. Oh suuuuuuure, I know I said (or at least thought) that I didn't mind if you lost here so you could have more time to prepare in London. But you know what?

I LIED.

And you know what else?

When I said that I didn't mind if you lost, I didn't mean that I wouldn't mind if you lost in three sets after having a break in the third set and FIVE F%^&ING MATCH POINTS. After I have been saying such nice things about you! Saying that you were playing good tennis! Saying that you might have a real shot at winning the WTF!

If you do not play well at the WTF, Roger, I will - I will -

- I will still love you, because you are my favourite ever, but I will be CROSS, Roger. I will be very cross. We are always hardest on the ones we love, and I will come down on you like a rather large pile of BRICKS.

If you must lose a match, do it in a way that doesn't break my heart, okay? And stop legitimising Monfils's dramatics by losing to him. They're annoying and you are BETTER THAN THAT.

Weird, But Not Complaining

Wow. Roger Federer, where have you been this year? This is a weird time of the year to start playing Ultimate God Tennis. Not complaining! Please keep it up!

It's sort of simultaneously hard and easy to believe that Federer's never made the semis of Paris. Easy, because this is not the most strategically important part of the year to be playing well. Hard, because he is playing SO well right now. And you know what? It would be really nice to cap off the year with a Masters title. Even better if he could cap it off with a good showing at the WTF.

He played SO well against Melzer today. He's had to play Melzer about a billion times this year after never having met him before, and it has not been a happy head to head for Jurgen, let us just say that much. Did you know that this is the most amount of aces he has ever served in a three set match? When that serve is going well, you know Federer's feeling good. You know that he doesn't have the back pain and that ANYTHING CAN HAPPEN.

So. Yeah. I'm excited about what the fading twilight of 2010 can offer Roger. Or, rather, what he can offer us!

Andy Murray lost today, in a very interesting match against Gael Monfils. I'm in two minds about the strategic importance of this. On one side, he really didn't show much form. On the other, he now has more rest before the O2, which is bad from a Federfan point of view. But oh well. Whatever. Roger is still my favourite.

The other two semi finalists are Llodra and Soderling - Llodra is totally having an awesome tournament! That said, I don't see him beating Robin, so we might be in for a very interesting final here. I would be very interested to see a Federer-Soderling final, assuming Roger comes through Monfils. It could be a very interesting prelude to the WTF!

The Radness of Rafa

Well, colour me unsurprised. Rafa Nadal has beaten Gael Monfils with supreme ease to win the title in Tokyo.

And it's time for another ode to how great Rafa is.

It's really rare that one talks in terms of poetry about Rafa. Poetry is reserved for Federer - and it's easy to see why. Federer's game is balletic, elegant, artistic. Rafa's game is a lot of things - brilliant among them - but 'balletic' is not a word that would usually get applied to it.

No, Rafa's game is pure prose. It doesn't need to be described it poetic terms because it's a prosaic game, and it should be discussed in prose.

What Rafa can do with a tennis racquet and a yellow ball is astounding. The way he moves is not godlike, it is Promethean. It is earthy and takes effort and you can feel the effort it takes. It is incredible what he can do. He has the strongest will of any player I have ever seen play, perhaps ever. He is mentally basically unbreakable.

Watching him almost makes you hurt sometimes - not because he is so good (which he is) but because watching him play looks physically painful. You wince but you can't look away. He is a warrior on court. He leaves nothing on that court.

And off the court he is one of the most humble, wonderful statesmen for the game we have ever seen.

I've said this before, but rock on, Rafa. You are awesome. Happy seventh title of 2010.

Whoa Tennis

Robin Soderling, I like you. You know I do. Compared to some other players, I bear you relatively little ill will for what you did to Roger at Roland Garros this year. I like watching you play and I barrack for you over at least nine out of ten other players.

That said...

REVENGE IS A DISH BEST SERVED COLD, BITCHES!

I am so, so glad that the Fedmeister took out this one and broke his two-Slam 'only the quarters' streak. And could I have possibly asked for more? I think not. I think I could have asked for not one iota more. Straight sets? Against the man that broke the 23-Slam semi streak? Whoa. That is all I can say.

It was whoa-tennis. Federer won 86% of points on his first serve. That is crazy talk. It is insanity. And you know what stat is my special favourite? FIVE OUT OF SIX BREAK POINTS CONVERTED. By Federer standards, that is absolutely outstanding.

I am a very happy little Federbitch right now, let's put it that way - and I am looking forward to Super Saturday with only a (relatively) small amount of frazzles! The Federer Express will be taking on Novak 'Bert' Djokovic, who has been playing surprisingly well this tournament. He played well to take out Monfils, and... he's pretty much just played well. No one expected him to get this far and he has. Kudos to him.

That said, I still don't like you, Novak. HOPP SUISSE!

Oh, and women's tennis. We have a Caro/Bepa semi. This has been a great year for Zvonareva... second straight major final, anyone? I know I'm cheering for it!

The Capslock of WTA RAGE

Today, I am spectacularly impressed by the main men in tennis and spectacularly unimpressed with the ladies' side of things. We had EPIC WINNAGE and then EPIC FAILAGE.

Let me elaborate.

First, the good news. Basically, the good news = the dudes. It's very unusual that you'll ever find me putting a Novak Djokovic win in among my good things, but it seems like everyone and his dog was expecting him to lose to Mardy 'Farty Dish' Fish today. Fish was the hot tip, the big pick... and instead, Djokovic coolly dispatched him in straights.

Everyone knows that I'm not Djokovic's biggest fan, but he proved why he is still near the top of the game after all these years. Kudos to you, Novak. Good job.

And then the Sod won, which fills me with frazzly terror but which is good because, hey, I like that Yoker, and Monfils won, which is cool, because I picked him to reach the semis and it makes me look a bit insightful.

Oh, and some Swissie won. Some Swissie looked pretty freaking brilliant as he put Melzer to bet in straights. And I'd like to give full credit to Melzer here, because he played some excellent tennis and never went away in the match. Federer was just awesome. And a 50% break point conversion rate? Given his usual standards, that is made of pure solid gold.

But then there were the women.

This does apply to all. Vera Zvonareva, you get an A+. You are my new favourite on this side of the draw, because you are really cool, Bepa, and you played some sweet sweet stuff against Petkovic today. You played like someone who has made the final of a Slam before and is looking to make their second one should play, and that really impresses me. You've played to your seed and no one can ask more of you than that.

...but I'm going to, because if it comes to it, I'm gonna need you to take out Caro for me. (You're cute, Domi, but I don't see you doing it.)

Caro, you're a sweet kid. You're the #1 seed and you're playing like it. BUT YOU PLAY THE MOST BORING TENNIS IN THE WORLD EVER WHY DID YOU NOT BEAT HER MASHA WHY WHY WHYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY?!

Kudos to Caro and all, but I was really disappointed Sharapova did not make more of this. I was hoping of something of the level of Stosur/Dementieva, and I definitely didn't get it. This match was billed so highly it was always going to be a letdown, but it should have been better than that.

Oh, and then there was bit where Wickmayer lost to Kanepi, and, oh yeah, SVETA LOST. Sveta, I wanted you to win so badly I PICKED you to win, and I NEVER pick you. But could you oblige me? NO. You went down in flames to tiny Domi C, and I'mma havin' a hard time forgiving you. Less brainfarts, please?! PLEASE?!

...I'm going to stop writing before the capslock gets stuck on. But come on, Bepa. Win this half for me. I know you have it in you!

Bloodless Coup

Well, we all know where my heart lies - it's firmly going yay yay YAY at such an awesome showing by Roger Federer over Brian Dabul.

I know Dabul is a nobody. I know Federer's break point conversion rate was crap. But seriously, the signs were nothing but good. And that tweener... swoon.

Okay. Pulling self together now.

It was a mixed day for the Australians - good for the women, with only Ferguson falling, though Stosur looked shaky, but poor for the dudes. Carsten Ball might be through, but that was a big fat fail from Lleyton Hewitt. If you're not going to pull the actual comeback, dude, lose in three. Have mercy. You can't come all the way back and stumble at the last hurdle. It's just not cool.

But back to the good news story. Most rocking player of the day as far as the ladies go has to go to Sally Peers - what an awesome victory! After coming through qualies! I don't know a lot about Peers, but I am 100% impressed - here is hoping she can keep up this standard!

There were no major upsets today, but we have to talk about Robin Soderling. I have never heard of this Andreas Haider-Maurer fellow - what is the go there? I saw none of the match, but it seems to me like he almost did what he did in Australia: play an awesome two sets and then lose in five. Thankfully for him he got it together in the fifth, but that is dangerous for the Yoker. (Though considering the quarter of the draw he is in, if he wants to sit this one out, well...)

Gael Monfils also needed five, but Hewitt was the only male seed to fall today, and we lost no seeds in the ladies - this must be the least bloody opening day in quite some time (especially considering Hewitt was the #32 seed!) I don't expect it to stay that way in the rest of the first round, but the normalcy (especially for the ladies) is almost refreshing.

A word, though, for Dinara Safina. She just could not make anything happen against Hantuchova today. Take the rest of the year off, Dinara. Come back next year. Just chill for a bit. Stop trying so hard.

US Open Predictions - The Gents

We've done the ladies, time for the gents. Away!

Rafa's quarter: It's weird to see Rafa in this spot and Roger in the #128, even though Rafa deserves it - I've just become accustomed to looking to the top for the Roginator. But nonetheless, here we are. And here Rafa is. And even though he took some not-so-awesome losses in Toronto and Cincy, you'd be a moron to pick against him.

The big challenge to Rafa in this quarter, the way I see it, is Nalbandian. I love that Nalby/Nadal match up and I am hanging out for that quarterfinal, because it would rock my socks off. Whether or not Daveed can keep in the best of health, on the other hand, is another matter - but he's not one of the top favourites for this event for nothing. And if anyone in this quarter can shock Rafa, it's Nalbandian. (That said, if Teimuraz Gabashvili takes a set from Rafa in the first round, I won't be surprised - he has game.)

I'd like to say Gulbis could make something happen here, but I don't think it's going to happen. I'm not expecting anything from Fernando Verdasco, who has been resoundingly meh of late. If I'm looking for super dark horses, I am looking to Ukraine - hello there, Sergiy Stakhovsky and Oleksandr Dolgopolov Jr. What have you got for me?

Winner: Rafael Nadal
If not him, then: David Nalbandian
Dark horse(s): Sergiy Stakhovsky (or maybe Denis Istomin or Jeremy Chardy)
First round matches to watch: Nadal/Gabashvili, Stakhovsky/Luczak, Chardy/Gulbis

Muzz's quarter: This is the quarter of players on whom Jodi is not too keen, with Murray, Stepanek and Berdych all ensconced therein. However, Andrey Golubev is in there too and I love him, so it's not all bad. (As well as some dude named Jack Sock. I like him just for his name.)

Considering Murray won the US Open series, I'm not going to pick against him here, but I'd be lying if I said I had a Murray feeling. I just can't see an adequate challenger. I don't see Berdych beating him, and guys who could legitimately trouble him, like Stan Wawrinka and John Isner, are just not in great form. But it's America, and so you never know what Querrey might do - and we mustn't forget that Mikhail Youzhny has been deep at this tournament before and is perfectly capable of doing it again. Actually, if anyone is going to overthrow the over-jawed Scot, it is the Headbanger.

Oh, and there's always Yen-hsun Lu to worry about...

Winner: Andy Murray
If not him, then: Mikhail Youzhny
Dark horse(s): Yen-hsun Lu and Andrey Golubev
First round matches to watch: Starace/Almagro, Youznhy/Golubev, Stepanek/Benneteau

Bert's quarter: This quarter is the one where a surprise semi-finalist would most likely come from, given how unimpressive Novak has been of late. If he was in better form, I would say it presented the perfect opportunity for Nikolay Davydenko. As it is, it might still be the perfect opportunity.

But this is a tough quarter. You're never going to count Andy Roddick out here, and you never know what Gael Monfils might pull. And then there's Mardy Fish, who has been playing some great stuff. And Marcos Baghdatis! The names just keep on coming.

Actually, you know what? I am going out on a mega limb here. I am going to pick Gael Monfils to win this quarter, on grounds no stronger than 'I have some kind of feeling' about him. Whether or not this is the 'upset in the first round' feeling remains to be seen...

Winner: Gael Monfils (told you)
If not him, then: Nikolay Davydenko or Mardy Fish
Dark horse(s): Marcos Baghdatis or Andy Roddick (can Roddick be a dark horse)
First round matches to watch: Greul/Gasquet, Djokovic/Troicki, Baghdatis/Clement

Roger's quarter: Oh gee, I wonder who Jodi is going to pick in this section. What a big surprise it will be!

Um... I might go Federer on this one.

The predictions of heart and head are aligning on this one. Roger has played some legitimately great stuff so far in the US Open series, and the Federcone partnership seems to be rocking on just fine. There's some big talent in this section, but Federer can, I am confident, handle all the punches thrown at him. The big lurking danger is obviously Robin Soderling, but I bet someone is hungry for a revenge sandwich. Served cold.

Another player I'm going to be watching with interest is Thiemo de Bakker - purely because everyone seems to be talking about him and I can't quite work out why. Suddenly he's this epic talent. When did that happen?

Winner: Roger Federer
If not him, then: Robin Soderling
Dark horse(s): Juan Carlos Ferrero
First round matches to watch: Dent/Falla, de Bakker/Gicquel, Nishikori/Korolev

That leaves us with the following semis:

Nadal vs Murray
Monfils vs Federer

I'm legitimately torn over who to pick for the first semi, though the second is no mystery to me. But given his previous record in Flushing Meadows (comparatively, at least) I'm lining up the following final:

Murray vs Federer

And you know what? I think Roger's going to break him. Again. Murray may have triumphed in Toronto, but here? Nah.

So, according to both my head and heart, my prediction for the men in the US Open is Roger Federer. (I wonder how many of you are surprised...?)

Hurrah for the Hopman Cup!

As regular readers of this blog will be aware, I embarked on an epic tennis adventure around the nation last year, stopping in at four cities. One of these was Perth, where I paid my first ever visit to Western Australia and the Hopman Cup.

Now, even though I had an absolute blast last year, I was tossing up whether to go to Perth again this year, because when you live in a country as big as Australia, flights clear across the country are expensive. It's like a punch directly to the wallet. But with the announcement of some of the teams, I think my decision's been made for me. I couldn't not go.

John Isner and Serena Williams are the American entry, and they have to be the top seeds for sure. Big Is played there last year (opposite tiny Melanie Oudin) and I think Perth will be very glad to see him back! And Serena, well… pulling a #1 player is a huge coup for an exhibition tournament like Hopman Cup! I'm assuming they pay appearance fees and that their bucket of money is very deep indeed, because they've also got Novak Djokovic and Ana Ivanovic. (I know Ana's ranking is not that high, but I still think she could demand big time fees!)

Oh, and Justine Henin, partnered with Steve Darcis. Minor coup. Pfft.

And then there's the French team! Gael Monfils is going to be very entertaining, and I'm really looking forward to seeing his partner, Kristina Mladenovic, one of the top juniors in the world. And Lleyton Hewitt is back (again), with a yet to be decided partner.

It would be pretty hard to dream up an exho field better than this! This has the two finalists from this year's AO and I for one am gagging to see them play. Perth 2011, here I come!

A Little La Monf

You know who is looking a little bit good at the moment, formwise? Gael Monfils. And there's something you don't hear said a lot.

I don't think anyone would argue with the fact that Monfils is one of the most talented guys on tour. He's also probably one of the best athletes in the world (I read somewhere that France puts all its athletes through some kind of crazy tests, and Monfils broke records in all of them.) When he's on, he's on. But he's the sketchiest damn player you ever met. He is worse than David Nalbandian (at least you know he's going to turn up for Davis Cup) and maybe on a par with Marat Safin. You never which Gael will show.

He hasn't really done anything much particularly remarkable this year. Not that I've noticed anyway... until this week. First, he plays like a gun in Davis Cup to help secure a huge win for France over Spain. And now he's tearing it up in Stuttgart.

Well, I say 'tearing it up'. He lost a set to Pablo Andujar. Maybe this is a little optimistic. But there is cause for optimism whenever Monfils strings a few matches together. It will be interesting to see whether he can close out this tournament. If he does, then... maybe we will be in for a rocket of a summer.

Or maybe not. It is Monfils, after all.

Talent Isn't Everything

As I have absolutely nothing else to talk about, I'm going to talk some more about Davis Cup. And what I have to say is this: if France don't win it this year, they are missing a huge opportunity.

Think about it. They have beaten Spain, the out and out favourites. They have so many players who can be so good on any given day... but who can also be terrible on any given day. If they all come out firing - can you imagine a France with a switched-on Jo Tsonga and Gael Monfils playing singles? - then nothing short of a miracle can stop them.

Of course, they're playing Argentina in the semis, and the Argentinians have a miracle up their sleeves. He goes by the name of David Nalbandian, and as just about any Davis Cup playing nation can tell you, he can derail the fiercest of challenges. But he is but one man, and the French squad is packed with talent.

What the French squad is not packed with is consistency. If they could find this like they did against Spain, they would be unstoppable. There are reasons why one man squads like Nalbandian's Argentina and Djokovic's Serbia can do so well, and that is maximising the consistency of a star player. France have a whole bunch of stars... but none of them seem to shine at the same time.

I hope, for their sake, much as I want Bandy to do well at this Cup they call Davis, that all the French guns fire in the semis. Because to have that much talent in a tennis nation and not have anything to show for it? That is a bit of a tragedy.

Keeping Spain Real

It had to happen sometime. Spain cannot win everything in the world.

Now that I have said this, watch Lopez and Verdasco come back from two sets down and then win their final two singles rubbers to take the tie. But as I write this, Spain are perilously close to being bundled out of the Davis Cup in straight rubbers.

Now that is a shock.

I know they don't have Nadal, but with the depth they have (and the number of pre-blooded Davis Cup heroes) you'd think that that wouldn't be an issue. But it looks like France have suddenly stopped being the wouldashouldacoulda team of the Davis Cup, realised that they have incredible amounts of talent pretty much oozing out of them, and done something about it.

Gael Monfils winning over David Ferrer is not a big shock. I think La Monf is the higher ranked player at the mo and he's certainly the most talented. The Spanish tend to come alive for Davis Cup, but Ferrer has a curiously poor record, comparatively. He's always the high ranked guy that gets yanked off singles to let some lower ranked guy be the hero (cf. Verdasco, the final in Argentina a couple of years back). And La Monfa, when he's not injured, is a mighty force to be reckoned with.

But Verdasco should never have lost that match against Llodra. Llodra is solid, for sure, but Verdasco is top ten. After all his previous Davis Cup heroics, he just might be Spain's undoing this time.

They've just won Wimbledon. They're probably going to win the World Cup. I guess this Davis Cup probably-loss is just keeping Spain real. They can't win everything. Just most things.

Hey Roland Garros, I Meant It - Get A Roof

Welcome to another odyssey in the adventures of Roland Garros and how much they need a roof. It is SO IRRITATING waiting till 4pm Paris time for play to start when you're in Australia and that means it's midnight. Yes, I'm whinging like a spoiled bratty little fangirl, but that is exactly what I am, so come on, Roland Garros. Get with the program and get a roof so I don't have to put everyone whose second round singles match got canned into the losers column. Remember Wimbledon in '07 when there were matches that took, like, five days? (Rafa, Yoker, I'm looking at you). YOU DO NOT WANT THIS.

Okay. Let's go.

The winners: Fabio Fognini. I know he only squeaked in by the skin of his very teeth and I should be putting him in this column, but this was such a spectacular victory, after all those shenanigans with the light and whatnot. Well done that Fog.

Also, Australian women's tennis in general. Sophie Ferguson may have lost, but both Jarmila Groth and Anastasia Rodionova won and won relatively easily as well. And if (fingers crossed) Sam Stosur gets through, that is three Aussie ladies in Round 3. And that is quite something.

I'd also like to mention Elena Dementieva. No one is talking about her, and I think this is a good thing. She is always over hyped in Australia and it never amounts to anything. I personally think she does much better with under hype... which is why it gets nasty when the last few rounds come around and everyone is hyped.

The losers: Well, Gael Monfils, obviously. Sucks to be you. 'Nuff on that.

We have to talk Ana Ivanovic here. I wrote a positively cheery series of posts about her a few weeks back, and yes, it was a blip. It is rare that a player has a blip of positivity rather than negativity, but it looks like what that was. I didn't expect her to beat Alisa Kleybanova but I expected her to do a little better than three games, which was, frankly, pathetic. Nothing more to say.

The disappointments: Agnieszka Radwanska. I honestly don't understand why she is seeded #8, because she never seems to be around when things get all second weekish in Slams. This said, I really like her game and I wish she, you know, won more. Very disappointing result. Yaroslava Shvedova is an excellent player - I saw her play at Hopman Cup, and was impressed - but Radwanska should certainly not be losing this tamely.

And much as I am parochially glad Anastasia Rodionova came through, I'm a bit disappointed in Vera Zvonareva as well. Is she still injured? She seems always to be injured. I didn't see the match, but this is really not a good result for her.

Oh, and Monfils. He should have been able to win that one.

The scraped-in-by-the-skin-of-teeth: The obvious choice is Fognini, but let's talk about those big seeds going four - specifically, the Andies. Andy Murray went four against the frankly over Juan Ignacio Chela and Andy Roddick went four against Blaz 'my name is awesome but no one knows who I am' Kavcic. Neither of them should really have gone four here.

And it wasn't really skin of teeth stuff, but I thought Jelena Jankovic was going to have a slightly easier time of it. Maybe her shiny yellow dress has made me a little over optimistic about her chances...?

One to watch: The selfsame Blaz Kavcic. I have no idea who this dude is, but if you can get through a round in a Slam and take a set off a top ten player, you've got a little something something going on. And also his name is totally awesome.

A Fairy Tale That Wasn't

Farewell America and hello Europe, farewell purple hardcourts - welcome to the red stuff. It seems like just yesterday we were all worried about these two big hardcourt Masters titles - well, it was yesterday, but whatevs. Today, it is all about the clay.

Suddenly, my friends, we are in the lead up to Roland Garros - where, for the first time ever, Roger Federer will be returning as defending champion. Here we have a very interesting few months of tennis. Oh yes we do.

But today let's forget all that. I want to write a little bit about one particular player - a player that opened his clay account (and, indeed, his account for the year, as far as I can tell) with a loss in Casablanca. (So much for 'hello Europe' - we're actually still in America and in Africa this week. Oops). That player is Robin Haase.

A couple of years back, when Haase played Hewitt in the first round of Wimbledon and played him so, so tight (five sets) I seriously thought this Dutch kid was the real deal. He was about twenty at the time, I think, and he played tennis pretty damn spectacularly. He was to me about two, three years back what Ernests Gulbis is now - one of the faces of the future of tennis.

And then he pretty much fell off the face of the planet. And I have no idea what happened to him.

This is the case sometimes, I suppose - when a player with so much promise and talent just never makes it happen. We always hear about the ones that do - I mean, Roger Federer, hello - but there are so, so many that don't. Just take a tour through the winners of junior Slams. For every Federer, even every Monfils, you have a Todd Reid. Who is that? Good question. I only know because he's Australian - he won junior Wimbledon and then did nothing else of note ever, as far as I can tell.

Robin Haase is, I am sad to say, might just be a Todd Reid. He didn't lose badly today - he went down in straights in breakers to Marcel Granollers - but even just playing a match on the tour level is a big thing for him now. I thought he'd have a huge stack of titles by now.

For every fairy tale, there is the one that didn't quite happen. And Robin Haase is one of those stories.