Czeching Out Rafa and Nando

Well, that's pretty much it for tennis this year, except for the Davis Cup final this weekend - which really is going to be an interesting affair. Normally you'd pick the Spaniards every time over the Czechs, especially given the headcaseness of Tomas Berdych, but I just don't know this time. The Spaniards have definitely got the firepower to take out the Czechs, but I think it's really going to depend on who they play.

Let me elaborate - the two big guns of Spain are Nadal and Verdasco, yeah? No questions asked there. Rafa is THE man to beat in Davis Cup and we all know what the final last year did for Nando's career. They are the guys to beat. However... both of them are not exactly what I would call in form.

This applies less, I think, to Verdasco. He, like Nadal, did not win a single match at the year ending championships, but he pushed people pretty close - he took a set off Federer and took Murray to a third set breaker. He was in a tough tough group - I mean, does it come much tougher than Federer, Murray and del Potro? - and it would have been more surprising if he had won a match than losing all three, I think. He's not quite on that level - which for Davis Cup is fine, because Stepanek and Berdych aren't on that level either. Stepanek is, I would say, a real threat to Verdasco - their levels are not so far apart, and Stepanek can beat just about anyone, on his day - but I think Nando would have a definite edge over Berdych.

But the fact remains that this is a much harder task than the one he had last year. His big win there - the one that spurred him on to those heights of excellence that he reached in Australia - was against Jose Acasuso. Second round at the French Open aside, I don't think too many players are quivering in fear at the thought of playing big Jose. So it'll be interesting to see how Nando fares - I wouldn't say he's out of form, but I wouldn't exactly say he's on fire either. But if anything is going to ignite him, Davis Cup will.

Now. Rafa.

Look, if I were the Spanish team captain, I would be having serious second thoughts about playing Rafa. I think you could give him a run against Berdych, but I would be worried playing him against Stepanek. Rafa is not all there at the moment. He knows that, the world knows that, and I'll bet the Spanish captain knows that too. If he were to take a loss in Davis Cup - in the final, in an arena where he normally would shine - I think that would do him a lot more harm in the long run than a win would do him good.

That said, if Rafa were to be benched, I don't think that would necessarily do him any good either. I don't know if there's really a perfect option in this scenario. I believe Rafa is capable of beating either of the Czech boys - I mean, who wouldn't believe it? But he's not Rafa right now. He's Shmafa. And a loss would, I think, be bad for him mentally. And I don't want a broken Rafa. I like him just the way he is.

...now watch him prove me spectacularly wrong.

The Tortoise Takes Out The Hares

You know what? I am genuinely 100% pleased with the outcome of the World Tour Finals, or whatever it is we call the Masters Cup these days. Nikolay Davydenko totally owned Juan Martin del Potro, defeating him in straights in what was probably the least contested match of the tournament. That's not necessarily a slight against the match, either - we've seen some great tennis in this tournament, some truly epic battles.

And it was Kolya, Mr Slow and Steady Wins The Race, Mr Makes No Waves, Mr Cellophane, who came out on top.

Good on you, Kolya.

I don't think Davydenko will ever win a Slam. However, this really has to be the next best thing. I thought that when he won Miami last year - was it really only last year? - that that might be the title of his career. But now... I think not. The year ending championships is no mean feat. The guys you play against in this tournament are the best in the world - and considering the very high level of the ATP at the moment, that is really saying something.

So for Nikolay Davydenko to come out and win, that is really, really something.

And kudos to del Potro as well, who did very well to get to the final - but he's had his moment for this year. This one belongs purely to Kolya. Though I have to say, del Potro did deliver a particularly good quote - about Davydenko. He said, talking about the speed of Davydenko's game, 'he plays like PlayStation'.

Heh. I loved that.

I don't think this will stop Kolya being Mr Cellophane in the media's eye. He's been top five for a solid five-odd years now and they haven't paid any especial attention to him - this title won't change that, as I think it has more to do with him being perceived as dull rather than on his merits. However, for the tennis world, this serves as a reminder that you can't just look right through Kolya, can't walk right by him and never know he's there...

...because he totally is.

Congrats, Kolya!


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Finals (London)

Nikolay Davydenko def. Juan Martin del Potro, 6-3 6-4
Juan Martin del Potro def. Robin Soderling, 6-7 (1-7) 6-3 7-6 (7-3)

A Serve of Validation (a little disappointment on the side)

It is very easy, as a Federer fan, to become greedy. We all felt very hard done by last year when Roger only managed to capture one Slam out of three finals and a semi. That was, by his standards, a poor year. And while he qualified for the year ending championships easily, he went out in the round robin stage. We were all in agonies... while fans of another player with the same year would be in paroxysms of joy.

This is why I'm not particularly upset by Federer's loss to Davydenko at the year ending championships. He's won the French and Wimbledon this year. He's never lost to Kolya before, but if he had to take a loss, this isn't necessarily a bad time. Sure, it's a little disappointing, but he's got the year end #1 all wrapped up. He's improved on last year. He's won this tournament four times before. He scored a very psychologically important win over Andy Murray. And he deserves to go home with his girls and put his feet up.

And Davydenko really, really deserves to win something.

I don't think will give Kolya some massive burst of confidence over Roger or anything. Looking at their reactions afterwards, I think they're both pretty realistic about the significance of this in the long run - ie. not very. It was a tight match all the way down to the wire, and for once, Kolya got lucky. And while I obviously still would have preferred a Federer victory, I can't help but feel a little bit happy for Kolya. He's such a good player but he gets forgotten about all the time, and he really deserves a big title.

To win said title, he'll have to topple the winner of Soderling and del Potro, who are engaged in a bit of a titanic struggle on this one. I have a slight hunch that the Yoker might be the one to come out of this with the win, and I am totally fine with that. If we see a Soderling/Davydenko final, I genuinely won't mind which guy wins. They both deserve a big win.


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Championships (London)

Nikolay Davydenko def. Robin Soderling, 7-6 (7-4) 4-6 6-3
Nikolay Davydenko def. Roger Federer, 6-2 4-6 7-5

Sod and the Semis

Roger didn't win that match I was frazzling over yesterday, but he did win a set, and that meant that he won Group A and will thus go through to the final. Joining him there will be his conqueror, Juan Martin del Potro, who managed to snuff out Andy Murray's hopes by a single game. I won't deny it - I laughed.

I don't think there's much to read into the defeat here - I know this makes two times in a row that Federer's fallen to del Potro, but I just can't see it being especially meaningful in the end. I don't think del Potro's ever going to be the boogeyman to Federer that Nadal and, to some extent, Murray, have been. Federer's got all the game he needs to defeat del Potro - it's just an execution thing.

I'd be interested to see what happens if they met in the final - how that one would play out. I can't really see Roger losing to him twice in three days or whatever the timeframe is. Now that would be a worry.

Del Potro will play, I think, Soderling in the semis - I'm pretty sure that the Yoker has the victory in Group A all tied up. That'll be an interesting match - hard to pick, to an extent - but I'm coming down on the side of Soderling in this one. He's been the form guy this tournament, and I think he's going to be very hard to beat... as both Rafa and Novak will tell you.

Speaking of Rafa and Novak, they played earlier, and surprise, surprise, Rafa lost. Novak is now waiting for the results of the Soderling/Davydenko match to see if he's through. I'm loving what the Sod's bringing to the courts these days and I'd love to see him in the final, but I confess I'm pulling for Davydenko on this one. I'd totally love to see him qualify for the semis. I don't think he'd beat Federer, which is who he'd run up against, but it would good validation for Mr Cellophane.

And if Davydenko does get through, it means that Federer is the only member of the Big Four (are we still calling them that? is del Potro allowed into the club yet?) to qualify for the semis. Now there's an unexpected result.


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Championships (London)

Juan Martin del Potro def. Roger Federer, 6-2 6-7 (5-7) 6-3
Novak Djokovic def. Rafael Nadal, 7-6 (7-5) 6-3

Frazzling Over Federer

What is with Roger Federer and the first set blues this week? He's just lost the first set 6-2 to Juan Martin del Potro, and I can't say I'm especially happy about it, especially as if he loses in straights, he doesn't qualify for the final. Which makes me cross. Argh. But I'll save my frazzling and wall punching for now. Roger's got the year end #1. That's a bigger victory in the long run.

Fernando Verdasco really did his best today - and boy was I pulling for him in that third set breaker! But it was not to be, I suppose. Nando's been struggling valiantly all week, but his level is just not as high as that of the other guys, when it comes down to it. Although he qualified ahead of Soderling, I don't think anyone would argue with me if I said Soderling was easily the better player right now.

But that said, Nando pushed Muzz and he pushed him hard. If Federer wins a set off del Potro (please, Roger!) then the qualifiers for the semis will come down to aggregate won/lost games, I believe, and in that case, two tiebreakers is not where you want to be, no sirree, not when Roger's got all those 6-1 sets in the bag. Muzz hasn't sucked this week, but I don't know if he's played well enough to deserve a semis spot. If only Juan Martin had been able to close him out. Urgh.

One person who is definitely not going through to the semis is Rafa - I think we left him yesterday having been crushed in the first set, and I wanted to send him home and give him a nice cup of tea. I still want to send him home and give him a nice cup of tea, but his level in the second set, even though it was very obviously Shmafa out there, was a lot better. He pushed Kolya all the way to the end, and broke back when Kolya served for it, and did all kinds of steely things. His form = obviously not so good. But this fight - which is the essence of Rafa, and which has been strangely lacklustre for a little while - is still there. And that, more than anything, is a good sign for Rafa. I hope he puts his feet up for a while. I think it will do him the world of good - and hopefully, he'll back to his fierce best in Australia.


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Championships (London)

Andy Murray def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-4 6-7 (4-7) 7-6 (7-3)
Nikolay Davydenko def. Rafael Nadal, 6-1 7-6 (7-4)

Shmafa Rears His Ugly Head

So I didn't need to punch a wall yesterday. If we just pretend the first set didn't happen, that would be a truly excellent win for Federer over Murray, who has troubled him a lot in the past. This head to head is turning around, my people - and I can see why.

The first set was a disaster. Ain't no one can argue like that. But then, like magic, Federer changed his tactics. And I think he found the right combination. I haven't seen Andy Murray drubbed 6-1 in a set like that for a very long time. Sure, it probably didn't help the Murray cause that his serve didn't turn up to the match, but in the long run, this was a match that Federer won, not that Murray lost. An excellent result. I was very happy...

...until I put my Rafa fan hat on. As I write this, he is currently being absolutely massacred by Davydenko. Now, we all know that I want to see Davydenko in the semis, and so winning this match = a good thing in that respect, but it pains me to see someone as good as Rafa playing this badly. After watching Roger struggle through 2008, I can sympathise with how devoted Rafanatics must feel right about now. The poor boy is just not there. His game's not there, his mind's not there... and for the first time that I've seen, his heart's not there. It's really sad to watch.

I don't know how much injury is still affecting him, but even if it's not, I sincerely hope he's giving serious thought to not playing the Davis Cup final. On one hand, that atmosphere would be one that he would feed off - normal Rafa, anyway. He's so fierce and steely most of the time that that nationalistic element would totally spur him on. But if this listless Shmafa is the dude that's going to turn up... I think that, mentally, that would do him more harm than good in the long run, and he should rest up for 2010.

But look at me, practically digging his grave when he's only down a set. Sure, he lost it 6-1, but you can never say never with Rafa.

That said, I really don't think he's going to qualify for the finals here. Soderling is already through from this group, and I really don't see Nadal beating Djokovic, unless Djokovic has an epic brainfreeze or something. Speaking of Djokovic, he's been on a bit of a winning streak, winning a couple of tournaments on the trot there - but his streak just got broken by the mighty mighty Sod. I'm really digging Soderling at the moment. His Scandinavian brusqueness - and, of course, his yoking - have endeared him to me. Provided he doesn't play Federer in the semis, I'd love to see him in the final. It would be the cherry of awesome on top of a sundae of a great year for him.


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Championships (London)

Roger Federer def. Andy Murray, 3-6 6-3 6-1
Robin Soderling def. Novak Djokovic, 7-6 (7-5) 6-1

More on Mr Cellophane

My beloved Roger Federer is, as I write this, one set down to Andy Murray. Excuse me while I go and punch a wall.

Back now (and slightly hamfisted, so let's not talk about Roger and Muzz again). The first match this morning went the distance like whoa, with Juan Martin del Potro taking down Fernando Verdasco in a third set tie breaker. The breaker itself was a bit of a fizzer - JMDP won it 7-1 - but for the match to get to that stage... wow. This tournament has been a real struggle. We've only seen one match finish in straights, and that was Soderling's victory over Nadal (stuffs fist in mouth and refuses to admit something similar might happen in the match currently taking place).

But the match I really want to talk about was the second match yesterday, which was a really interesting affair - Djokovic against Davydenko. I'm not a Djokovic fan, as we all know, so I was pulling for Davydenko, and he nearly got there - nearly, but not quite. There was a bit of choking at the end from both players - Djokovic tried to serve it out, Kolya broke back to level at 5-5, btu then promptly got broken again and Novak managed to hold to take the match. But on the whole, I find this whole match up quite... intriguing.

Actually, I'm always intrigued to see how players fare against Kolya. He's one of those players who is capable of scoring a win on pretty much any given day against pretty much anyone, but he manages to fly under the radar on account of having the personality of porridge. (I've called him Mr Cellophane before, and I think it holds). But he's certainly beaten Nadal and Djokovic before in his career - has he beaten Murray? I'm not sure... a little research reveals that their head to head is 5-4 in Murray's favour. Kolya's beaten Nadal three times and Djokovic twice. The only person he's never had a win over is the Big Man Roger Federer, and even then he's managed to give him a scare or two.

I was sad to see Kolya lose yesterday, because I think that, if he makes it to the semis, he actually has a pretty serious shot at winning this title. He's easily the best player in the world who has never reached a Slam final and a title here would be... well, it would be pretty awesome for him. It would be validation. (Though I obviously am all about R-Fed winning... but we're not talking about him right now).


Today's Results

Barclays ATP World Tour Championships (London)

Juan Martin del Potro def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-4 3-6 7-6 (7-1)
Novak Djokovic def. Nikolay Davydenko, 3-6 6-4 7-5