The Djoker In The Pack

Seven out of eight on my predictions for quarter finals on the bottom half of the draw. Now that's not too bad, eh?

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The one result I got wrong was the match between Flavia Pennetta and Carla Suarez Navarro. I had picked Pennetta to win, on the basis of never having heard of Suarez Navarro before, but it was Suarez Navarro who came out on top. So I did a bit of background reading on her, and it turns out that she's only nineteen, is from the Canary Islands, is ranked #132 in the world and has only played seven tour-level matches. This is her first Grand Slam. Oh yeah, and she came up through qualies to get into the main draw. I can't even remember the last time a qualifier made it to the third round, let alone the quarter finals. It seems like she's a claycourt player - and doing well at Roland Garros would certainly seem to ratify this! There's no real big gun in Spanish women's tennis at the moment - correct me if I'm wrong, but I think Anabel Medina Garrigues is the Spanish #1 at the moment, and she's ranked in the high twenties somewhere. Medina Garrigues has been around for a while, so maybe Suarez Navarro can pick up the baton. One good run at Roland Garros doesn't automatically mean hey presto! career, but it'll certainly do her a world of good!

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...not to mention that before the Suarez Navarro run to the quarters, the biggest story of the tournament for Spanish women's tennis was Nuria Llagostera Vives's naked pictures. So kudos to Suarez Navarro for overriding that with actual tennis.

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Suarez Navarro aside, I was bang on with the rest of my quarter final picks - so, on the women's side, we're going to see Jankovic/Navarro and Ivanovic/Schnyder. All were straight sets victories. The one I expected to be tougher was the Srebotnik/Schnyder match, but Patty took her out reasonably easily end... not that it'll do her much good in the next round if Ivanovic keeps playing the way she is. Sure, Petra Cetkovska is not one of the Sharapovas or Kuznetsovas of the world, but Ivanovic double bagelled her. Excellent tennis there. If we see another Ivanovic/Sharapova final like at the Australian Open and Ivanovic plays like this, MaSha doesn't have a prayer.

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My one concern is that Ivanovic might have peaked a bit too early. I don't think she's going to have too much trouble in her quarter final match - Schnyder is an excellent player, but I don't think she's in quite the same class - but come the semis, she could be in for it. My semi final picks for this half are Ivanovic and Jankovic, and wouldn't that be some match! Much as I was rabbiting on about Suarez Navarro before, I think Jankovic will take her out easily - provided that her shoulder injury doesn't flare up. If Jankovic were less easily injured, I think she'd have overtaken Ivanovic in the rankings by now. Not that Ivanovic isn't an excellent player, but I'd venture to say (in my extraordinarily uneducated opinion!) that Jankovic maybe has more natural talent... but it's Ivanovic who's gone deeper at the Slams, reaching the final of the French last year and the Australian this year.

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I heard on Radio Roland Garros that Ivanovic and Jankovic don't like each other. I can't say I'm particularly surprised, to tell the truth. They seem like very different types of girls. What I'm interested to know is which side Novak Djokovic, the third member of their Serbian trio, comes down on. Is he in the corner with Jelena, whispering nasty things about Ana? Or do he and Ana exchange bitchy text messages about Jelena? Or, hell, does he play both sides?

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...or he could be totally uninterested. That is always an option too.

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Speaking of the Djoker, I was really hoping that Paul-Henri Mathieu could give him more of a run for it, but I suppose it was not to be. I haven't been very impressed with Paulo this year, to tell the truth. He used to be one of my personal Kohlschreibers - one of the players that I think they're better than they actually are. But after that match against Rafa (it was Rafa, wasn't it?) at the Australian Open this year, Paulo has had a bit of a fall from grace in my eyes. I could be wrong, but he hasn't had the greatest of years this year... though hey, round of sixteen at Roland Garros isn't bad.

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Djokovic was solid as usual - a good performance, I must concede, even though we all know how much I don't like him. One of the Radio Roland Garros commentators asked a very interesting question, though - how much further has Novak Djokovic got to improve? How much better can he get? Or is this it for Djokovic?

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Djokovic doesn't really have a major weapon - in comparison to say, Federer, who is excellent in all aspects of the game but has that magical forehand that it is totally destructive when he is on song. Djokovic is equally solid off both wings - perhaps a tiny bit more off the backhand? He has a good serve, though I suppose he could get better. (He does, however, have the ability to serve excellently on big points, which is very important.) The only area I can really see that needs work is his volleys and maybe he could improve round the net. He has remarkable touch on his dropshots and, on the whole, a top-notch all court game.

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So where is there for Djokovic to go?

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To be fair, you could say the same thing about my beloved Federer as well. Roger is brilliant at EVERYTHING. The thing is, though, I can always see Federer adding things to his game. The forehand dropshot that has come out this season, for sure. And Federer is, quite simply, a genius. Djokovic is very, very good - good enough to take Federer out a time or two, like at the Australian Open in 2008 - but I would hesitate to put Djokovic in the same category. This is not to denigrate Djokovic as a player, because even though I think he's an arrogant little tosspot, I can't deny that he's a fabulous player. But Federer is this endless well of potential. He is capable of tennis so astonishing that, as a commentator declared during the Ancic match, it should be made illegal. Djokovic has got game, sure, and he's got drive, and he's got talent, but I don't know how much better he can get.

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It's going to be interesting to see how being #3 for so long - nearly a year now - affects him mentally. He rocketed up the rankings - I remember Federer playing him in the first round of a tournament in 2006 when he had come through as a qualifer. He came up and up and up and - stopped. Because at the top of the game is Roger, and standing behind the throne is Rafa, and it will take a HELL of a player to get past those two.

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The Djoker has come close. The semi final between him and Rafa in Hamburg determined who would go into Roland Garros ranked #2. Who came out on top? Rafa. We seem set to see another Nadal/Djokovic semi here at the French, and although Djokovic is good, I don't think you can bet against Rafa, not here, not the way he's playing. Federer could challenge him. You can never, ever count Federer out. You can't count Djokovic out either, but I would be totally stunned if Novak beat Rafa here, in Rafa's playground. Rafa is #2. Djokovic is #3. And it's that way for a reason.

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If Djokovic is to overtake Rafa in the rankings, it will have to be in the second half of the year, where traditionally Rafa has played poorly. But the pressure, for once, will be on Novak. Djokovic has been #3 for nearly a year now, and so he's coming up to the point where he'll have to defend the points that got him there. How will that pressure effect him? Rafa, on the other hand, provided he defends most of his points at Wimbledon, stands to gain a lot if he plays well. And how is Djokovic going to cope with having these two players in front of him that it is so, so difficult - if not impossible - to pass? Surely that's going to have an impact on him mentally.

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I didn't really mean to digress into a rant on Djokovic there and I'm sure everyone who reads this is tired of me beating the Roger And Rafa Are Better drum over and over again! But I think we're really coming up to the make-or-break point for Novak. His second half of the season last year was excellent. That was when he really cemented himself as #3 and put distance between him and the Davydenkos and the Ferrers and the Nalbandians. But how is going to cope with defending his points? That is going to be a real test of nerve and toughness. He's totally capable of dealing with it - no one can deny that - but being capable of it and dealing with it are two different issues.

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I was totally right with my bottom half quarter final predictions for the men - we're going to see Djokovic/Gulbis and Nadal/Almagro. So I guess I do know my men's tennis after all! I don't think you can go past Nadal and Djokovic for the semi finals, but I think both matches will be interesting. Nadal will beat Almagro - I make that one 99% sure - but I think Almagro will be significantly more trouble for him than his last opponents. Almagro is an excellent claycourt player - he won Acapulco and Costa do Sauipe this year, as well as making the final in Valencia, which are all clay tournaments. And it'll also be interesting to see how Rafa adjusts to playing a right-handed player, after having played four lefties in a row! That must have been unusal for him!

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But I don't think there's any way Rafa will lose. He might lose a set, but probably not even that if he keeps playing at the level that he is. Djokovic, on the other hand, could conceivably be upset, in my book. Gulbis is an unknown quantity. He and Djokovic have never played before. And, as I wrote about a couple of days back, Ernests Gulbis has got game, big time. Give him a couple of years, and he is going to be absolutely fabulous. I would love to see him take out Djokovic. (I mean, I would love to see anybody take out Djokovic, but it would be great to see one of the guys I've earmarked as a player of the future do it, because then I'd feel really smart!) Unfortunately, I still have to put my money on Djokovic here, but I wouldn't be surprised to see Gulbis take a set off him at least. So Nadal/Djokovic is my semi final pick here, but I would love, love, LOVE to be wrong!

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But we have another day of round of sixteen matches ahead of us before we begin worrying about who is going to be playing in the semis! To revise my picks from yesterday, I think we're going to see Federer/Gonzalez and Ferrer/Monfils. The one I have the most doubt about is Gonzalez - Stepanek has been playing very well. Still, I think Gonzo'll get him. On the women's, I am (semi-controversially) Safina/Dementieva and Azarenka/Kvitova. I fully concede that I am likely to be wrong in all four of these. Safina would be pulling a huge upset, as would Azarenka. I'm considering changing my pick in the Kvitova/Kanepi match to Kanepi after learning last night (while hunting for answers for the Radio Roland Garros quiz, which I am totally winning, by the way!) that Kanepi won junior Roland Garros back in the day, but I'm going to stick to my guns and say Kvitova anyway. For no real reason.

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And so now we are officially into the second week of Roland Garros - where the going gets tough and the tough send the rest going.

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...I apologise completely for that abuse of cliche.

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Roland Garros Results - Day #8

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Men's Draw

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Rafael Nadal def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-1 6-0 6-2

Novak Djokovic def. Paul-Henri Mathieu, 6-4 6-3 6-4

Nicolas Almagro def. Jeremy Chardy, 7-6 (7-0) 7-6 (9-7) 7-5

Ernests Gulbis def. Michael Llodra, 6-4 7-6 (7-4) 6-3

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Women's Draw

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Ana Ivanovic def. Petra Cetkovska, 6-0 6-0

Jelena Jankovic def. Agnieszka Radwanska, 6-3 7-6 (7-3)

Carla Suarez Navarro def. Flavia Pennetta, 6-3 6-2

Patty Schnyder def. Katerina Srebotnik, 6-2 6-4