That Feeling

That's it. I am officially giving up on what was once the Davydenko quarter of the draw. Every time I pick someone to come through to the semis, they lose. Kolya went. A-Rod went. And now Mathieu and Tursunov have both been scuttled. No matter what happens, there is going to be an unseeded player in the semi - either Cilic, Tipsarevic, Schuettler or Clement. Not names you expect to see in a Grand Slam semi final, eh? Cilic is the only other player I think I've mentioned in this quarter prior to the mass exodus, so I'm going to go with him as my tip. Of course, this means he will lose instantly now.

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I would say that Rafa must be cheering, as this quarter is in the same half of the draw as his, but he has a few tough ones to get through before he gets there. That's the one quarter where the seeds have basically held true the whole way through. No matter what happens, Rafa is at least going to have a tough quarter final, provided he gets through his round of sixteen match. He's playing Mikhail Youzhny, who has been a bit of a boogeyman for him in the past. There was the quarters of the US Open two years ago, for one. There was the final of Chennai this year, where Youzhny won bagel, breadstick. And they met at this stage in Wimbledon last year, and it was a close fought five set affair. So this match is going to be very interesting, I think.

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Not that I would bet against Rafa, or anything... though don't expect me to take my own advice later in this piece. He looked very impressive against Kiefer, who is definitely no slouch on grass. I was very impressed with his performance. He did very well indeed. Kiefer didn't give up, either - Rafa just accelerated away in those last two sets, even though he took that spectacular fall... that one was a doozy. So well done, Rafa. Tough times await, but I don't think anyone would be doubting his ability or his drive to reach the final. And who knows? There is always the chance that Youzhny will split his head open with his racket again... that was an amusing moment. Straight to the pool room.

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The winner of the Nadal/Youzhny match will face the winner of Gasquet/Murray, and that is going to be seriously intriguing. Richou's coming off a truly terrible spell, but he played very nicely last night in taking out Gilles Simon, and he seems much happier on the grass than he did at s'Hertogenbosch last week. Murray was also very impressive against Haas, even though he dropped a set. He has the home crowd advantage, though I don't think that's as a big of a motivation thing for him as it was for Henman, back in the day. Murray has never been beyond the fourth round of a Slam, though - actually, it will be interesting to see whose hands that plays into. Gasquet is hardly King of the Slams, but he has gone deeper, with that semi and I think maybe a quarter here and there, and so he has a modicum of experience. But Murray hasn't, and maybe so he has the motivation.

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Of all the fourth round match ups, the Gasquet/Murray clash is the hardest one to call. They're ranked pretty closely - not much separates them at all. They're both a bit injury prone - you could have a great drinking game with that match! A shot every time someone calls the trainer. Both are capable of beautiful tennis. (Did anyone else see that incredible passing shot of Murray's in the first set last night? The one where he was outside the doubles alley and flicked it down the line back into court? It was sweet.) And Andy and Richou even look the same. So it's incredibly difficult to call.

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I'm going to go with Murray, but just barely. I think he might want it a tiny bit more, and I think he's in slightly better form. And also I have a tiny hunch. But I am totally prepared to be wrong on this one.

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I am going to be slightly controversial, however, and call a Youzhny victory over Rafa. I would not be surprised AT ALL if I am wrong. In fact, I don't think I want to be right. This is based on a feeling, and nothing more. But there is clearly something about Youzhny's game that troubles Rafa. I haven't watched Youzhny play enough to tell you what it is. But there's something, something that is not nothing. I think the longer the match goes, the more it is going to favour Rafa, however, so if Mikhail is going to win, it will necessitate him getting off to a good start. Intellectually, all the signs do point to Rafa to win. Emotionally, I want Rafa to win, even though he is perceived as such a threat to my beloved Roger Federer. But I just have this FEELING...

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And who can tell what is going to happen in Wimbledon this year? If Rafa gets through Youzhny, he will face a very tough match in the quarters, no matter who gets through. If he gets to the semi, I don't think there's too much doubt of him making the final... but look at what happened with Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. That quarter in particular is maybe the most interesting section of the draw, because there are so many possiblities.

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So, the quarter finals. Yesterday I picked Federer/Ancic and Safin/Baghdatis. From the bottom half, I'm going to say Youzhny/Murray (or Nadal/Gasquet, or Nadal/Murray, or Youzhny/Gasquet... you can't make me choose!) and Tipsarevic/Cilic. I don't really have too much faith in any of my picks in the bottom half, but we'll see, we'll see.

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The women's draw is a very interesting place to hang out as well. I'd like to send a fond farewell to Dinara Safina, who played very bravely but eventually went out against Shahar Peer. I guess the Safin/Safina semi final dream is not to be. Dinara is still about in the doubles though, so it's not all over for her by any means. She was probably the biggest seed to fall yesterday, though it wasn't like a massive shock upset or anything - not like Ivanovic. But, oh golly oh gosh, etc, etc, Jelena Jankovic came close. Sometimes watching her play makes me cringe, because she's injured ALL THE TIME. Seriously, I don't think I've ever seen a match in which she hasn't played under some injury cloud. And with her knee, I don't like her chances. With Ivanovic gone, I bet she likes her chances, but one again I find myself saying that I just have this feeling...

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Yesterday I picked Szavay/Vaidisova and Radwanska/Serena Williams as my top half quarters. In the bottom half, I'm going to pick Dementieva/Petrova - Dementieva will be too strong for Peer, I feel, and Petrova has just been playing so marvellously I don't think she'll have much problem with the Sharapova-slaying tuxedo-hating Alla Kudryavtseva. And then I'm going to pick Venus Williams/Tanasugarn. That's right, Jodi's calling another upset. Tanasugarn is a smart woman and she is going to send Jankovic sprawling all over the court if she senses even a hint of weakness in that knee. And who knows what kind of upset Alisa Kleybanova could pull? I don't see her getting past Venus, but I don't think even Venus can outhit this young woman.

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And I'm keeping my eye on the juniors as well, and I'd like to just mention two young Aussies that did well. Bernard Tomic, of course, the top seed, won his match convincingly, but what was perhaps more impressive was the effort of Isabella Holland, winning a three set marathon match. Maybe there is some hope for Australian tennis after all...

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Wimbledon Results - Day #6

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Men's Draw

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Rafael Nadal def. Nicolas Kiefer, 7-6 (7-3) 6-2 6-3

Andy Murray def. Tommy Haas, 6-4 6-7 (4-7) 6-3 6-2

Richard Gasquet def. Gilles Simon, 6-3 6-3 6-7 (3-7) 6-3

Janko Tipsarevic def. Dmitry Tursunov, 7-6 (7-1) 7-6 (7-3) 6-3

Mihail Youzhny def. Radek Stepanek, 7-5 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-7 (4-7) 6-3

Rainer Schuettler def. Guillermo Garcia-Lopez, 6-2 6-3 6-4

Marin Cilic def. Paul-Henri Mathieu, 6-7 (5-7) 6-3 6-4 7-6 (8-6)

Arnaud Clement def. Jurgen Melzer, 4-6 6-3 6-4 6-4

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Women's Draw

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Jelena Jankovic def. Caroline Wozniacki, 2-6 6-4 6-2

Venus Williams def. Maria Jose Martinez Sanchez, 6-1 7-5

Elena Dementieva def. Gisela Dulko, 7-6 (7-2) 7-5

Nadia Petrova def. Victoria Azarenka, 7-6 (13-11) 7-6 (7-4)

Shahar Peer def. Dinara Safina, 5-7 7-6 (7-4) 8-6

Tamarine Tanasugarn def. Marina Erakovic, 4-6 6-4 6-4

Alla Kudryavtseva def. Shuai Peng, 6-3 1-6 6-4

Alisa Kleybanova def. Ai Sugiyama, 6-4 6-4