Thoughts on Day Zero

Why is it, WHY IS IT, that one of the most commonly asked questions in press conferences this week, to just about any player, has been 'Can Federer win Wimbledon?'

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Um, let me think. Gee, this is total rocket science. He won a grass court final last week without dropping a set, or dropping serve. He made it to the final of Roland Garros the week before - which is better than the other one hundred and twenty six guys who took a loss there. He's got a fifty nine match win streak on grass courts. He hasn't lost on grass since 2002. He's only been taken to five sets once. Oh yeah, and he's won Wimbledon FIVE TIMES BEFORE.

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So, with that in mind, do you think he can win it?

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Forgive me for having some faith in the man who has time and time again proved himself to the most consistent (and, in my opinion, the out and out best) player in tennis history.

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Greg Sharko puts it better on his preview of the draw (on ATPtennis.com) when he asks the question, 'Can anyone stop the king of grass?' To which I would reply, 'Well, nothing's impossible, but you might need to put a blindfold on Federer. And possibly break his leg. And even then, the other guy would have to have a hell of a day.'

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There is this mystique that surrounds Rafa on clay, this sort of aura - kind of a psych out. People think he is unbeatable, and so he is unbeatable. And he totally deserves it - I'm not saying that he's not! But Federer's prowess on grass is comparable to Rafa on clay, if not better, and yet he doesn't quite have the same mystique. Not this year, anyway. But I think he just might earn it back...

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Let's have a look at Federer's run through the draw. He starts off tonight with Dominik Hrbaty, who I think is ranked somewhere in the #200s now, though he used to be up there... he has a career high ranking of #12, in fact. Beyond that, I can't tell you much about him other than that he once more a really stupid shirt at the US Open... it had sort of half moon cutouts over his shoulder blades. Lleyton Hewitt beat him after being down and when asked how he did it, replied (possibly paraphrased), 'I couldn't stand losing to a guy in a shirt like that.'

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Second round is maybe Soderling, who has been playing well of late - was it him that went through World Team Tennis at Dusseldorf without losing a match? He could be a bit tricky, but the maestro will prevail, obviously, to take on probably Monfils - though Nishikori, the Japanese teenager, could be a dark horse in that little section. Actually, anyone of those four guys (also including Marc Gicquel and Chris Guccione) has third round potential. None of them is a match for the mighty Fed, though!

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The round of sixteen looks like being either Hewitt or Gonzalez... though Haase, the up and coming Dutchman, might be due for a breakthrough. I don't know what his game is like on grass, though. Gonzalez isn't really a grasscourter - though his forehand is a great grass weapon! - so Rog would probably have little trouble there. Hewitt might prove more troublesome, but he does have that injury... and let's face it, Lleyton is not what he once was.

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Ferrer seems the most likely quarter finalist, and this is where matches might start getting a bit harder. Ferru has been playing so well of late, and he has that grass court title from s'Hertogenbosch... but one grass court title doesn't really compare to ten, now, does it! Federer in four, if you ask me... or three, if he's really smacking it well. Berdych is also a possibility, but he doesn't seem to be that in form... Kohlschreiber and Ancic (and maybe Llodra) could be the surprise packets in this section. But none of them is a match for Roger.

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Then in the semis it gets interesting. Novak Djokovic is seeded to reach the semis here, and, much as I hate him, I wouldn't be surprised if he, you know, does. This would give us a rematch of that horrible Australian Open semi. But I think it might be a good thing. He'd never admit it, but Federer works best when he has a little extra motivation, and revenge is a dish best served cold. Remember at the Australian Open last year when Djokovic and Federer met in the round of sixteen, and Djokovic was talking big beforehand, and Federer came out and absolutely crushed him. It isn't really fair to count Djokovic out, but I would not be at all surprised to see that happen again. Where there's a will...

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And then, the final. See qualms re. using the word 'destiny,' but let's just say I would not be AT ALL surprised to see a Roger/Rafa match here. And this time, it'll be Roger who comes out on top.

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Let's have a look now at Rafa's potential road to the final. He opens against Andreas Beck, who had a pretty decent run at Halle, considering his ranking, but shouldn't prove too much trouble for Senor Nadal... though we can never forget the infamous Kendrick Incident of 2006. Rafa has historically not played his best in the early rounds at Wimbledon, so who knows? maybe Andreas will do all right. I wouldn't bet on him, though.

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The second round could be Gulbis, which would definitely be tricky. We all know how good Gulbis is going to be... and the other potential opponent here for Rafa is Isner, and I would not like to be facing his serve on grass, no sirree! This round could be a potential pitfall for Rafa, but I think he'll come out of it relatively unscathed, to face probably Kiefer in the next round (or maybe Benneteau.) That one should prove a little easier, methinks... though you can never count Kiefer out when he's having a good day.

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The round of sixteen will probably be either Stepanek or Youzhny. Youzhny has been a bit of a boogeyman for Rafa in the past (and absolutely crushed him at this year's final in Chennai, bagel, breadstick) so that could be a very interesting match. Likewise, Stepanek the Dalek has suddenly become all good, despite his weirdness, so he could give Rafa a tough match too. Man, I hadn't realised how difficult this side of the draw is for Rafa! I still like him to come through, though. He isn't #2 for nothing.

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If the seeds hold true, it'd be Gasquet in the quarters... but let's face it, Richou has not got his head in the game at the moment. I wouldn't be at all surprised if we saw Murray there, or maybe Gilles Simon... and you can never count out Sebastien Grosjean on grass. Fabrice Santoro is also a possibility. This little section, actually, might be the weakest in the whole draw, considering Richou has his head in the clouds - so I like Rafa to come through this one pretty easily (much as I would like to see Sebastien make a run for it!) Then it would probably be Davydenko in the semis. Other options here include Roddick, Tursunov, Blake, Mathieu or even Ljubicic, but I like the consistency of Kolya's game. He hasn't played a lead in tournament on grass, though, which could prove a bit silly - why, Kolya, why did you go and play fricking Warsaw? Rafa to come through that match to the final, which I have covered.

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Actually, let's examine that Kolya quarter and have a look at his run to the semis. He has Benjamin Becker (no relation) in the first round, which could be a bit of fun... if this were best of three I might tip Becker-no-relation for an upset, but over five I think Kolya will be stronger. either Bjorkman or Clement in the second round, which I think Kolya would come through, though either of these veterans would give him a run for his money! Then probably Ljubicic in the third round, which could get REALLY interesting... think back to Roland Garros a few weeks ago, when Ljubicic came back to beat Kolya in five? Psych? Maybe. I don't know if Kolya is vulnerable to that sort of thing, though. He seems so steady...

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That would give us probably Mathieu or maybe Nieminen in the round of sixteen - though Jeremy Chardy is in this section, as is Marin Cilic, either of whom could pull an upset. I like Kolya to come through nonetheless. Then probably Roddick in the quarters, given past grass court form. (Challengers include Tursunov, Blake and maybe the dark horse Tipsarevic.) That match could go either way... but based on present form and injuries and whatnot, I'd tip Kolya - barely - to go to a semi... where he would meet Rafa and lose.

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The remaining quarter of the draw is the Djokovic quarter. He opens against Michael Berrer, who isn't a slouch on grass, but who I think Novak will dispatch pretty easily (unfortunately.) The second round could prove harder if Marat Safin makes it through his match with Fognini - and oh boy, how I would be cheering for the big Russian! Marat is historically not the best grasscourter, however, and his consistency (something Djokovic unfortunately has in spades) leaves something to be desired. Still, an upset is certainly possible here.

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Seppi looks likely for the third round, though I would not count out Yen-hsun Lu of Chinese Taipei, who has been doing very well in Challengers of late. Either way, it seems like Djokovic would come through all right. That would give us probably Wawrinka in the round of sixteen (Querrey might be the dark horse in this section) and I don't mind Stan's chances... if he plays as well as he's capable, Novak might have a wee bit of trouble. But then again, if Novak plays as well as he's capable, then...

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In the quarters, it looks like either Nalbandian or Baghdatis - either of whom is very capable of giving Djokovic a run for it... actually, I really like Baghdatis's chances. He has a great grass court game. He and Djokovic had a marathon five set match last year at Wimbledon which Djokovic won, though they both pretty much had to be carried off the court by the end of it. Karlovic is also in this section, and Igor Kunitsyn could be a dark (well... very dark) horse. Let's say Novak wins... he would go through to the semis, where he would face Federer, and would get destroyed. Hurrah.

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There's my general analysis of the quarters - and I will shut up in a minute, I promise! Just a few first round matches which I think could be very interesting...

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Marc Gicquel vs. Kei Nishikori: Gicquel just made it to the final of s'Hertogenbosch. Nishikori is the youngest player in the draw, a real star of the future. This match could go all the way.

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Lleyton Hewitt vs. Robin Haase: Haase announced his arrival by beating Ljubicic at the Australian Open and has posted pretty decent results since. Hewitt, coming back from injury, could be in some strife.

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Tomas Berdych vs. Evgeny Korolev: Korolev is just looking for a breakthrough, and Berdych, while he is an awesome grass courter when he is on song, has been off with Richou in fairy-land of late. Could go to five sets.

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Fernando Verdasco vs. Philipp Kohlschreiber: The Nottingham finalist vs. the Halle finalist. Five hours is possible, if not probable.

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Michael Llodra vs. Mario Ancic: It is a fool who doubts Mario Ancic on grass. It is a fool who doubts that Michael Llodra has got some serious game going on this year. If Verdasco/Kohlschreiber is five hours, this one could go six.

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Florent Serra vs. Yen-hsun Lu: Lu is slowly creeping up the rankings without anyone really noticing... but does he have the game to unsettle the steady Frenchman? I reckon he does.

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Thomaz Bellucci vs. Igor Kunitsyn: Bellucci has had some great Challenger results on clay, so it will be interesting to see how that translates to grass. And Kunitsyn is on the verge of... something.

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Andy Roddick vs. Eduardo Schwank: Schwank did the best of all the Argentinians at Roland Garros. He has had some great Challenger results - but can he translate that onto grass? I don't see him beating Roddick, but I can see him troubling him for sure.

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Jeremy Chardy vs. Frederico Gil: Two young guys, hungry to make a breakthrough. Chardy has done it to an extent at Roland Garros - can it be the young Portuguese guy this time?

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Jonas Bjorkman vs. Arnaud Clement: Two veterans on the tour. A sentimental match to watch, more than anything else. But you can never count them out... remember, Bjorkman was in the semis here two years ago.

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Nikolay Davydenko vs. Benjamin Becker: Becker-no-relation has got some game. This is Kolya's first grass court match for the season. I smell five sets.

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Guillermo Canas vs. Tommy Haas: Neither of these guys is seeded? Are you kidding me?

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Andy Murray vs. Fabrice Santoro: It's always fun to watch Marat Safin's most feared player, the French wizard... he could upset Murray easily if Murray doesn't pay enough attention.

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John Isner vs. Ernests Gulbis: Isner's huge serve is terrifying. But Gulbis has got the game to neutralise it... and how will he back up his Roland Garros effort?

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I promised a while back that I'd shut up. And I will - after I say this.

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Federer is going to win Wimbledon. And all ye who have doubted him... watch out. Because the King is going to reclaim his throne for the sixth year running, and he is going to do it in STYLE.