Sunday, August 24, 2008

Grapple in the Apple

I promised, I will deliver. US Open draw preview coming right up.
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Let's start at the top, in the Nadal quarter. (Oh! how it hurts to say that!) I think you'd be a fool not to pick Rafa in this quarter to make the semis, with the way he's playing at the moment - though for his sake, I hope that playing all those tournaments hasn't worn him out! One potential quarter-final match that could be very interesting, however, is Rafa vs. LameDave Headbandian - on the proviso that GoodDave, and not LameDave, shows up. Rafa has never beaten Nalbandian - there's something about the Headbandian game that gives him trouble. I think they've only played twice or something though, so I don't know how indicative is of anything... and Rafa is THE form player at the moment, and LameDave doesn't even make the list - he's been very underwhelming this year. Rafa is the quintessential anti-headcase, so I don't know how much effect that record would have on him either... but still. Could be interesting. If Nalbandian makes the quarters, which I personally wouldn't bet on.
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I certainly don't see anyone stopping Rafa on the way to the quarters - the only people with even an outside chance are probably Berdych and maybe Querrey, or, if Rafa breaks his leg, Kohlschreiber. But really, you'd be a moron to bet against Rafa there. In the Nalbandian section, however, there are a couple of potentials. Blake is one. Fish is another. And Monfils, if he isn't injured. I'd like to see Nalbandian make it, because I want to see how Rafa fares against him, but if I were gambling, I think I'd go with Blake.
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Now, the second quarter. This is the really interesting quarter, because it's the one from whence comes the random semi-finalist. Randoms so far this year include Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, Gael Monfils and Rainer Schuettler - so who is it to be this time? The seed is Ferrer, and he plays well at the US Open traditionally, so he well could fulfil his seed. I'd like that, actually... and a Rafa/Ferru semi could be interesting, because Ferru has knocked Rafa out of this tournament before. However, there are some other challengers - not least among them being Juan Martin del Potro. There are some good names in this quarter, actually - despite the lack of a member of the Big Three, it's got a lot of really good players. Murray is one, Stan W another. There's the ever-dangerous Canas, Youzhny, Lopez, Monaco and even Star of the Future Bellucci. My quarter final pick is probably Ferrer against Wawrinka - though it could just as easily be del Potro against Murray. It will be between those four that the quarter will be decided, methinks. However, I'm going to stick with the seed and say Ferrer will come through - though not with any conviction.
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Now we come to the Djokovic quarter - ominous music. Personally, I would prefer that Djokovic won the quarter to Roddick winning it, so unimpressed am I with Roddick right now. He should have gone to the Olympics, instead of playing schlep tournaments. In fact, I hope he gets knocked out in the first round. And he's playing Fabrice Santoro, who you should never underestimate, so maybe he will. Allez Fabrice.
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If I were to pick a sentimental semi-finalist here, I would say Safin - and we all know he's capable of it, though whether or not he does it is a whole other story. Jo-Wilfried is back, but because it's his first tournament since, like, twelve years ago, I wouldn't put any money on him to repeat his Australian Open performance. One match that is going to be very interesting is the potential third round of Djokovic versus Cilic - and we all know who I'll be going for. In fact, I'm going to be bold and say Cilic will win it! Go Marin! And should Djokovic come through, he might face Marat... and that will be a real test of his strength of character. A headcase would lose. A not-headcase would not. Simple as that.
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I'm going to stick to my guns and pick Cilic as my quarter finalist here - though Marat would be ideal. And in the other section (the Roddick section) I'm going with my boy Ernests Gulbis. I think Roddick is going to crash and burn - if he doesn't lose to Santoro, Gulbis will get him, mark my words. Kiefer and especially Gonzalez are also possibilities, but I really like Gulbis here. Gulbis versus Cilic quarter final, I say - and though it will be long and hard-fought, I'm going with Gulbis to win it. Go Ernests! (And Marin too... I'm cheering for my Stars!)
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And then the bestest quarter - the Federer quarter. We all know who I'm picking to win. The Fed Express has a pretty decent draw - Stepanek in the third round could be a bit interesting, but I don't see him taking three sets off Roger. Best of five suits the Federer game so much more - I feel like he can sort of relax into it more. Andreev could potentially win a set, and maybe Nando Verdasco, but otherwise, I think Rog has a reasonably smooth ride to the quarters. There, I think he might face Tursunov. Or possibly Haas. This is really not the strongest section ever. Davydenko is the seed, but with his attitude right now, I wouldn't pick him to beat anyone. Even me. Tipsarevic is another possibility, but I wouldn't give Gasquet and Almagro much in the way of a chance - or even Star of the Future Schwank. I'm going to go with Tursunov - mostly for sentimental reasons - but whoever it is, I think Federer will beat them. It'll be pretty disastrous if he loses before then - but he's keyed up for Slams. And I think doubles at the Olympics taught him to love tennis again - he was just having such a blast! Hopefully he can just chill out and play his game.
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Let's revise those picks for the quarter finals. We have:
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Nadal vs. Blake
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Ferrer vs. Wawrinka
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Cilic vs. Gulbis
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Federer vs. Tursunov
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This would translate to the following semis:
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Nadal vs. Ferrer
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Federer vs. Gulbis
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And to the following final:
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Nadal vs. Federer
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And we all know who I think will win the Grapple in the Apple. Hopp Suisse!
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I haven't really looked at the women's draw, but I can tell you this - Dinara Safina is going to win. No doubt.
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No results today!

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