Ernie Rolls Onwards

So Jeremy Chardy has some serious cojones on clay. Remember a few years back when he knocked out Tursunov and Nalbandian in a row at Roland Garros on his way to the round of sixteen? (Leastways, I'm pretty sure it was those two - what's up with Dmitry Tursunov these days anyway? He used to be one of my favourites.)

Ernests Gulbis knocked him out in cruise-y straights today.

He had his mojo going on hard courts - his mojo took him all the way to the title at Delray Beach, where he overcame some serious opponents, not least of whom was Ivo Karlovic. And now in Barcelona, it's Jeremy Chardy who's fallen to the Gulbis train. And beating Chardy on clay - that's not the easiest thing in the world.

I know Ernie has a bit of the dirtballer around him as well - it might have been the same year, actually, when he rode the train all the way to the quarters before falling to old friend Djokovic. I know that it's easy to read too much into Ernie wins, but this is a seriously good sign, especially coming off that title in Delray Beach. If Ernie can do well on the clay, then everything is looking good.

I know I am a chronic optimist about this boy, but I am so eager for him to do well. He has so much talent - I want him (finally) to deliver.

The Season of Sam

First thing's first: This is my 750th post! Yay me!

Second thing's second: Rafa's decision to skip Barcelona? Smartest thing he could have possibly done.

Third thing's third: Sam Stosur is made of awesome.

It kind of slipped under the radar in Australian tennis this week, mostly because a new president has been elected for Tennis Australia and there's a little bit of controversy there, but Sam Stosur won her second career title in Charleston. This puts her back in the top ten and, if she can keep up her results through the clay court season and accumulate some solid points, I think she's going to be a fixture there - even if she loses some of the points she made by reaching the semis of Roland Garros last year.

Stosur's game is, as I talked about a few days earlier, great on clay. Her kick serve goes from being awesome to practically untouchable, and she's proved this week she has the mental strength you need for the clay court season. She demolished some truly excellent players this week - not least of whom was Vera Zvonareva, who pulverised a racquet so spectacularly it actually shattered.

I'm excited for Stosur and her prospects on clay this season. Because I have an inkling that this season is going to be the Season of Sam.

Message Sent

Message sent.

So that whole thing about Rafa Nadal not winning a title for nearly a year? Functionally irrelevant once he steps onto clay, particularly the clay of Monte Carlo, his self-professed favourite tournament.

There has not been a moment this week when Rafa has not looked like winning.

If Rafa keeps playing like this, no one is going to be able to touch him. End of story. The only person who might even come close to getting a set off him is Federer, and even that might be contentious. If Rafa stays in his happy place, then he's going to slide right into his fifth Roland Garros title, mark my words.

The only thing that might end up being his undoing is, like last year, his scheduling. We all know that his faith in his knees is probably not optimal at the moment - though that might all have slipped away once he stepped on the clay and attained nirvana, I don't know. He's playing four tournaments in five weeks, and it's a decent bet that he's going to win every single one of them.

What Rafa doesn't want to do is run out of steam. I mean, sure, he has a lot of steam, but I'm sure there is a school of thought that says that he should, you know, take it easy and maybe not play so much tennis, particularly on this surface, which is so tough on the body.

But if he's going to beat opponents for the loss of only one game, as in the case of Nando Verdasco today, he can pretty much play as much tennis as he likes...

Sam Slams It In Charleston

I hear there is tennis going on in the world that is not in Monte Carlo and does not involve anyone named Rafa or Nole or Daveeeeeeeeeed. You might have heard of it, though I really don't give it as much screen time as I ought. It's called 'women's tennis'.

In all the excitement of Rafa on clay and Murray failing miserably, I just about forgot the ladies existed this week. And this meant that - as she is often wont to do when no one is watching - Sam Stosur is through to the semis in Charleston.

It's very popular to go on and on and on about how Australian tennis players are rubbish on clay, but I don't think the sitch is as dire as it is often made out to be. Our #2 dude, Peter Luczak, is essentially a claycourt specialist, and Sam Stosur? Well, there was that whole bit where she made the semis at Roland Garros last year. And oh look, here we are in Charleston on the red stuff, and Slammin' Sammy has slammed her way into the semis again.

I think a lot of Sam's weapons, particularly her serve, are accentuated on clay. It's not un-Rafalike, the monstrous kick she can get on her kick serve when she serves it right on the clay. And that serve is hard enough to play at the best of times.

I would not be at all surprised if Sam went on to win this tournament - though I'm not going to go and predict it or anything, because we all know Sam does her best work when no one's looking. She looked great in her quarter final match against Shuai Peng and I'm really excited to see how Sam slams it this year on the clay.

The Bakery Reopens

The Rafa Nadal bakery is well and truly open for business. Two bagels, two breadsticks... wow. That's something else.

Rafa hasn't won a tournament since Rome last year and so he is, in some respects, at his most vulnerable going into this clay season. If he cannot win on clay, especially here at Monte Carlo, where he's won six times in a row before, then something is going on.

...but as of this moment, something is not going on. Or rather it is, but it is the good something. If Rafa wanted to send a message, he could hardly have done it better. Smell that fresh bakery aroma - it's going to be around for a while.

I mean, sure, Thiemo de Bakker and Michael Berrer aren't exactly Federer and Djokovic. But when you consider the pressure - the incredibly immense pressure - that is on Nadal at the moment, the way he has opened this season is exemplary. There's no fear from Rafa - Shmafa is nowhere to be seen on the red stuff. There's none of that caution that we saw after that loss he took to Soderling at Roland Garros. There's none of that.

It's a little difficult to make a sweeping statement based on two matches. But when in those two matches Rafa only gave up two games... consider this statement swept. Rafa is, as ever, the man to beat at Monte Carlo - and he's the one they'll all have to overcome if anyone else is going to taste glory on clay.

Stan Gets Dirty

How on earth is this only Stan Wawrinka's second career title? That totally blows my mind. Stan is such an awesome player that this just seems so... weird to me.

And it's been a good few years since his first title - that was Umag 2006, if I remember correctly, where he defeated one Novak Djokovic. Since then he's lost five finals, in a case of what I like to call 'Stosuritis' - but here he is, on debut in Casablanca, winning.

Winning, I would like to point out, in the first real clay tournament of the year - the first one that matters, anyway, on account of how we are actually building up to something (i.e. Roland Garros). Not that I think Stan is going to go on and win the French Open or anything... but I think we could be looking at a good run from Stan this dirtball season. Unlike Chela's win, I think this win actually means something.

This said, Victor Hanescu is not the biggest baddest opponent in the world - still, he was the third seed here and a very creditable dirtballer. Stan's going to have to face much bigger and meaner claycourters in the rest of the season... but you know what? when Stan plays well, it takes someone who is really, really awesome to stop him. Look at his run at Wimbledon last year, where he just got edged out by Andy Murray.

I have a hunch. I have an inkling. And my inkling says that this year's claycourt season is going to be a very good one for Stan Wawrinka.

Dirtying Up Stan

Let's talk Stan the Man. We all know Stan. We all like Stan. He's that other Swiss dude that plays tennis and has a baby, remember? He won that gold medal with his mate Rog that one time and they had that weird campfire ritual? You with me?

So, once upon a time Stan was in the top ten, but he hasn't been there for a little while now. This really isn't due to too much fault of his own - we're in a totally strong age. This said, Stan has not been playing totally great for a while. He's good, he's solid, but not great. He takes some weird losses. He takes some losses he really shouldn't. Sometimes Stan is not the Man. (Even though his backhand is a thing of pure joy. Can we please have a Gasquet/Wawrinka exo one day where they're only allowed to play with their backhands?)

What people often forget about Stan the Man is that he won junior Roland Garros in 2003. And also, his first title was in Umag, which is, I believe, on clay. The dude is, in essence, a dirtballer. I mean, look at the big result that catapulted him into the top ten - it was making the final in Rome a couple of years back, which is one of the biggest claycourt events there is. (I believe he beat one R Federer en route to that title, and that is no mean feat). Most of Stan's best results have come on dirt.

And this is how I explain the weird score of Stan's match today - he may be playing a little erratically, but he's a dirtballer in his soul. That's where 6-4 0-6 6-4 comes from. There's some good solid play in there, with a little WTFery in the middle.

I like Stan's game a lot - especially his backhand - and I think that if he has a real swell claycourt season, he can climb back into that top ten. So here is the question I ask today - what does Stan need to do to eliminate the WTFery and be Stan the Man all the time?

King Kolya of AlternaTour

And now to our final weekend winner, though the weekend is long gone - the King of AlternaTour where they play on clay out of season, Nikolay Davydenko.

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Kolya typically wins a lot around this time of the year - mainly because no one really sane plays on AlternaTour so he can tear up the court. But for some reason I'm finding him especially ominous this year. Maybe it's the time off he took with injury. Maybe it's just some sort of renewed sense of motivation. But there seems to be a bit of a sharper edge to Kolya right now.

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I don't think he can really be considered as a candidate for this year's Juan because hello, Kolya has well and truly arrived. He's been as high as #3 if memory serves and I don't think he's going to get that high again, not with the Hispano-Suisse domination machine still steamrolling around and Muzza on the page... though Djokovic seems to be hanging on by his fingernails. But I just have a feeling about Kolya...

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It depends on the side of the draw he ends up in. He has a record against the great one RF that could best be described as 'crap'. However, against Rafa, he's notched a win or two up. And he really is a very, very good player - not a champion, but very consistent and very talented, capable of unseating just about anyone...

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How does Nikolay Davydenko, US Open finalist, sound to everyone else?

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I'm not calling it - yet. But I'm sure not putting it outside the realms of possibility...

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Today's Results

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Mason Legg Tennis Classic (Washington)

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Mikhail Youzhny def. Robert Kendrick, 7-5 3-6 6-1

Philipp Petzschner def. Teimuraz Gabashvili, 4-6 6-3 6-4

Somdev Devvarman def. Yuichi Sugita, 6-0 7-6 (8-6)

Yen-hsun Lu def. Michael Russell, 4-6 6-1 7-5

Frank Dancevic def. Santiago Giraldo, 6-4 6-3

Alejandro Falla def. Jesse Witten, 6-1 6-4

Lleyton Hewitt def. Donald Young, 7-5 6-2

Marc Gicquel def. Jerzy Janowicz, 7-5 2-6 6-4

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LA Women's Tennis Championships (Los Angeles)

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Elena Vesnina def. Agnes Szavay, 6-1 6-0

Anna Chakvetadze def. Virginie Razzano, 7-6 (7-5) 6-3

Alona Bondarenko def. Meghann Shaughnessy, 3-6 6-3 6-3

Shahar Peer def. Anastasia Rodionova, 7-5 4-1 retired

Flavia Pennetta def. Varvara Lepchenko, 6-2 5-7 6-0

Jill Craybas def. Francesca Schiavone, 7-6 (9-7) 6-2

Yanina Wickmayer def. Nicola Vaidisova, 6-1 6-1

Shuai Peng def. Michaella Krajicek, 6-3 6-7 (4-7) 6-3

Bellucci Blazes

I don't know how this happened without my noticing, but would you look at that: another one of my Stars has gone and won a title! Told you they'd be good (if only Ernests Gulbis would listen...)

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This particular Star is Thomaz Bellucci, who first caught my attention when he played Rafa Nadal pretty tight in the first round of Roland Garros last year. He's a claycourter by nature, but he's done all right on other surfaces as well. I think the reason I've been basically ignoring him this week is that he's playing on AlternaTour, where you can basically play on clay for eleven straight months, but a title is a title, even if it is in Gstaad on the red stuff.

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He's obviously been playing some good stuff all week and he overcame a pretty good current player, Andreas Beck, in the final to lift his maiden trophy. Am oddly proud, even though I obviously have nothing to do with career - he's proving me right in my picks for future Stars. He's maybe not in my first tier of Stars with Cilic and (glup) Gulbis, who I really believe will be top ten, but Bellucci is going to be round for a long time, making things tough on clay (and occasionally other surfaces) for a while yet.

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What I would like to see him do now is stop playing on AlternaTour and start playing more on other surfaces to become more well-rounded. He certainly doesn't suck on other surfaces, but I am morally opposed to AlternaTour. Tennis should follow the Slams, in my humble and ill-educated opinion. For a tennis player's career as a whole, I don't think it's really good to be playing on the one surface for so long.

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But enough dire career warning. Well done, Thomaz Bellucci, Star of the Future, on your maiden title!

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Today's Results

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Allianz Suisse Open Gstaad (Gstaad)

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Thomaz Bellucci def. Andreas Beck, 6-4 7-6 (7-2)

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ATP Studena Croatia Open (Umag)

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Nikolay Davydenko def. Juan Carlos Ferrero, 6-3 6-0

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Bank of the West Classic (Stanford)

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Marion Bartoli def. Samantha Stosur, 6-3 1-6 6-1

Marion Bartoli def. Venus Williams, 6-2 5-7 6-4

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Istanbul Cup (Istanbul)

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Vera Dushevina def. Lucie Hradecka, 6-0 6-1

Old Rant, New Thoughts

It's that time again - time for that rant I've dragged out at least a hundred times but am still not sick of...

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What is the point of playing clay court tennis after Roland Garros is over? What is the point?
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Maybe I just subscribe to a viewpoint which is too Grand Slam centric, but once Roland Garros is over, there is nothing to work towards by playing clay court tennis. Nothing. Nada. Niente. Except Roland Garros next year, and that's a long way away. I mean, I suppose by this reasoning the calendar year should end with the US Open and people should skip the entire indoor synthetic surface because there isn't a Slam on it... but come on, August to January is hard court season, dudes! What's up with the clay?

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What, in effect, this is doing is contributing to the creation of 'claycourters' as opposed to all round tennis players. In some respects, it's almost a different tour. The way it's set up now, you can go from February to about September playing claycourt tennis if you want, even though the big clay court events are in April and May. So only the claycourters play these random post-RG events, getting rankings points and, in theory, propelling them much higher up the rankings than they ought to be. And they're only playing a select group of opponents - the claycourters.

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I'm not saying that people should be banned from playing claycourt events if they want to... it just seems a bit strange, setting up a sort of alternate tour within the tour. Hardcourts aren't everyone's cup of tea, I respect that... but shouldn't people at least try to diversify their surfaces?

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Today's Results

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Catella Swedish Open (Bastad)

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Fernando Verdasco def. Daniel Koellerer, 6-7 (1-7) 6-2 7-5

Jurgen Melzer def. Daniel Gimeno-Traver, 6-2 6-2

Nicolas Almagro def. Potito Starace, 2-6 6-1 6-1

Andreas Vinciguerra def. Guillermo Canas, 6-7 (5-7) 6-3 6-4

Juan Monaco def. Victor Crivoi, 6-0 7-6 (7-1)

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Mercedes Cup (Stuttgart)

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Mischa Zverev def. Gilles Simon, 6-4 6-2

Nikolay Davydenko def. Michael Berrer, 6-3 6-3

Lukasz Kubot def. Philipp Kohlschreiber, 6-2 6-4

Fabio Fognini def. Paul-Henri Mathieu, 6-4 4-1 retired

Jeremy Chardy def. Martin Vassallo Arguello, 2-6 6-3 6-1

Nicolas Kiefer def. Simon Greul, 6-3 6-4

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ECM Prague Open (Prague)

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Iveta Benesova def. Monica Niculescu, 7-5 6-4

Zarina Diyas def. Petra Kvitova, 6-4 6-2

Kateryna Bondarenko def. Kristina Barrois, 7-5 7-5

Timea Bacsinszky def. Stefanie Voegele, 6-4 6-1

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Internazionali Femminili di Tennis di Palermo (Palermo)

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Patty Schnyder def. Nuria Llagostera Vives, 6-2 6-2

Sara Errani def. Patricia Mayr, 7-6 (8-6) 6-1

Yaroslava Shvedova def. Alberta Brianti, 6-3 6-2

Anna-Lena Groenefeld def. Arantxa Rus, 7-6 (7-5) 6-3

Merry Murray

I bet Andy Murray is really happy right now. It was his birthday yesterday, I do believe, and as a special treat, he got to play his bestest friend EVAH, Juan Martin del Potro, almost exactly a year after Juan M made some, ahem, very interesting comments about Andy's mum. And to make it even better, Andy lost. In straight sets.

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Yep. Bet he's beaming.

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That said, Andy Murray has really exceeded my expectations on the red stuff (or the almost blue stuff, in Madrid) this year. He's not a claycourt player and it's evident - he certainly doesn't look comfortable out there. But he's been winning matches on the stuff, and that is something. That is certainly something.

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I'm certainly not going to go and proclaim him the uber-favourite for Roland Garros or anything - I mean, please, everyone knows who that is! - nor am I prepared to elevate him to the arena of serious contender on claycourts just yet, but give him a little time, and... Andy's working at it. He has done much better than I thought he would - even with the whole loss to Juan Martin del Potro thing.

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This means we have the #1, #2, #3 and #5 seeds through to the semis in the men - and what have we got in the women? Well, we have #1. And... oh look, there's #9! Caro Wozniacki made it through. But our other two semi-finalists are unseeded - veterans Patty Schnyder and Amelie Mauresmo. Schnyder has been on a hot run of late, taking out Serena last week and now Jelena Jankovic, and Mauresmo has been very impressive as well. But where are the big guns there? No one is delivering except Dinara at the moment - and right now, because of that, I'm thinking she deserves to be #1.

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Today's Results

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Mutua Madrilena Madrid Open (Madrid)

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Men's Draw

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Rafael Nadal def. Fernando Verdasco, 6-4 7-5

Roger Federer def. Andy Roddick, 7-5 6-7 (5-7) 6-1

Novak Djokovic def. Ivan Ljubicic, 6-4 6-4

Juan Martin del Potro def. Andy Murray, 7-6 (7-4) 6-3

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Women's Draw

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Dinara Safina def. Alona Bondarenko, 6-4 6-3

Patty Schnyder def. Jelena Jankovic, 7-6 (8-6) 6-3

Caroline Wozniacki def. Vera Dushevina, 6-0 6-4

Amelie Mauresmo def. Agnes Szavay, 5-7 6-1 6-1

Nada, Niente

You know who has been a spectacular disappointment so far this year? James Blake.

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Seriously, I can't think of a single tournament in which he's gone deep. Of course, my memory isn't encyclopaedic, but if he'd done something noteworthy, I'm pretty sure I would have, you know, noted it. But nada. Nothing. Nil. Niente. And now he's just taken another loss in the first round of Rome, to little known Romanian qualifier Victor Crivoi.

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Sure, I mean, we're on clay, and clay has traditionally not been the best surface for Blake and for Americans in general - from memory, the furthest any American got last year was the third round, and that American was Bobby Reynolds, who is hardly one of the big leagues. But first round? To a qualifer ranked #112 in the world? That really signals a bit of a problem.

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And, of course, it's not just the clay. Blake has flown under the radar for pretty much the entire year - because he hasn't done anything noteworthy. A quick scan of his ATP profile shows that his best result this year was a semi in San Jose. Radek Stepanek won that title. Blake should be able to outclass him with relative ease. But nada. Niente.

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It's sad - I like Blake. He's good to watch play and he's a lovely guy as well. So pick up the ball, James, because there's no room for performances like this in a tour this deep.

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Today's Results

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Internazionali BNL d'Italia (Rome)

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Stanislas Wawrinka def. Igor Kunitsyn, 6-3 6-4

Victor Crivoi def. James Blake, 7-5 6-3

Marin Cilic def. Flavio Cipolla, 6-2 6-2

Christophe Rochus def. Juan Ignacio Chela, 6-1 6-2

Juan Monaco def. Nicolas Kiefer, 6-2 6-3

Viktor Troicki def. Victor Hanescu, 6-3 6-3

Ivo Karlovic def. Jan Hernych, 4-6 6-4 6-2

Albert Montanes def. Potito Starace, 7-6 (10-8) 6-4

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Porsche Tennis Grand Prix (Stuttgart)

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Victoria Azarenka def. Carla Suárez Navarro, 6-1 6-4

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Grand Prix de SAR le Princesse Lalla Meryem (Fes)

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Marta Domachowska def. Maria Kirilenko, 6-4 6-4

Ekaterina Makarova def. Ioana Raluca Olaru, 7-6 (7-5) 6-4

Accentuate the Positive

A positive sign from Roger Federer! He's accepted a wildcard into Monte Carlo, which I think is a very good move. This is for two reasons - a) if he's accepting wildcards, it means his back can't be feeling too bad; and b) he just needs some tennis, especially after that pathetic display in Miami. It'll be good for him to be on a new surface, especially a surface on which there is very little pressure.

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Because that's true, I think - this year, at least, because he's not coming into it ranked #1, there will be less pressure on the Mighty Fed. No one expects him to win Roland Garros - or indeed anything where Rafa Nadal is in the draw. That's where all the pressure will be - on the Raf. I think he's more than equal to it - the only time I have ever seen pressure really weigh on him was in that match against Nalbandian a couple of weeks ago, and even then, he overcame it splendidly.

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But we're talking Roger, not Rafa. It will be good to have a little bit of the weight of expectation off his shoulders, I think. I'm not saying he will be entirely free-swinging, but being on a new surface where he isn't expected to do as well might be a bit freeing. So it's going to get interesting. I'll be interested to see how Roger goes. I'd love to see him win one of these Masters events, especially considering he hasn't won one since Cincy in '07. I don't think you'd tip against Rafa in any of them, but... we shall see.

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Brief sidenote - I'll be interested to see how the Swiss #2, Stan Wawrinka, does on clay. He made his real charge here last year, so it'd be nice to see if he could back it up.

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And in the women's side, I think I have a new pick for Roland Garros - not to win, necessarily, but to go deep. Carla Suarez Navarro. I like her more every time I see her play.

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Today's Results

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Grand Prix Hassan II (Casablanca)

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Igor Andreev def. Nicolas Devilder, 6-7 (11-13) 7-6 (7-5) 6-4

Florent Serra def. Olivier Rochus, 6-3 6-3

Marc Gicquel def. Mischa Zverev, 6-4 7-5

Teimuraz Gabashvili def. Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo, 6-4 6-4

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US Men's Clay Court Championships (Houston)

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Evgeny Korolev def. Daniel Gimeno-Traver, 6-3 7-6 (7-4)

Bjorn Phau def. Scoville Jenkins, 6-4 7-6 (7-2)

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Andalucia Tennis Experience (Marbella)

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Jelena Jankovic def. Selima Sfar, 6-3 6-0

Kaia Kanepi def. Aranxta Rus, 7-5 6-2

Carla Suárez Navarro def. Ekaterina Ivanova, 0-6 6-3 6-0

Sara Errani def. Polona Hercog, 6-0 7-6 (9-7)

Klara Zakopalova def. Renata Vorocova, 7-6 (9-7) 5-7 6-0

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MPS Group Championships (Ponte Vedra Beach)

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Caroline Wozniacki def. Virginie Razzano, 6-3 7-5

Aleksandra Wozniak def. Sabine Lisicki, 3-6 7-6 (7-3) 6-4

Tamira Paszek def. Varvara Lepchenko, 3-6 6-3 6-4

Club Up-And-Comer

You know who I like watching? I've talked about her before, but not enough, clearly. Dominika Cibulkova. If she doesn't get into the top ten this year - especially considering the WTA is in the state it's in at the moment - I will eat an item of my own clothing.

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It seems the popular up-and-comer to tip as a Slam winner at the moment is Victoria Azarenka - and fair enough, too, because she has been pretty damn solid in a field of flakes and has been the only person to have established something vaguely resembling dominance over Serena this year. (She was winning at the Open until she came down ill, and she took her out conclusively in the Miami final.) I may have objections to Azarenka's personality, founded on an incident that took place in Brisbane where she proved herself to be, for lack of a better phrase, a nasty tempered little bitch, but I don't think anyone would deny her ability.

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But there are a couple of others sitting behind her in Club Up-And-Comer - one is Caroline Wozniacki, of whom I have not seen enough to comment, and the other has to be Dominika Cibulkova. I saw her play live at the Australian Open this year and she is amazing - and I'm not going to forget the masterclass she gave Dinara Safina in the Hopman Cup final. She's tiny, quick and can hit it hard - girl's got skills. I'd been hoping for a bit more from her in the hardcourt season, but that breakthrough might be yet to come. But the clay season... it is going to be really interesting to see which way the cookie crumbles in this season.

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I think Cibulkova's game will translate wonderfully to clay - and probably Azarenka's too. Serena's doesn't, especially... as we can see from her first round loss in Marbella to Klara Zakopalova (though that might have something to do with injury.) Now that the Henin monopoly on Roland Garros is over, it's anyone's game. I wouldn't put much money on Ana Ivanovic defending her title, and with Jankovic looking like Maria Sharapova's 'cow on ice', I wouldn't put much money on her either.

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What I would really like to see is Dinara Safina going all the way. We're nearly up to the part of the season where she began her charge last year, and I would dearly love to see her do it again. So come on, Zeljko, whip her into shape. Far be it from me to offer actual technical advice, but fix her goddamn serve. Dinara's got all the weapons... and she's made two Slam finals now. Time to claim one for her own.

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But the reality is that if Victoria Azarenka or Dominika Cibulkova win it... who would be surprised?

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Today's Results

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Grand Prix Hassan II (Casablanca)

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Albert Montanes def. Santiago Ventura, 5-7 6-3 7-5

Victor Hanescu def. Ivan Navarro, 6-1 6-0

Frederico Gil def. Ivan Ljubicic, 6-7 (2-7) 7-5 6-4

Juan Carlos Ferrero def. Potito Starace, 6-4 7-6 (7-1)

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US Men's Clay Court Championships (Houston)

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Wayne Odesnik def. Jurgen Melzer, 6-4 6-0

John Isner def. Paul Capdeville, 4-6 7-6 (7-1) 7-6 (7-5)

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Andalucia Tennis Experience (Marbella)

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Anabel Medina Garrigues def. Virginia Ruano Pascual, 6-2 6-3

Sorana Cirstea def. Andreja Klepac, 4-6 6-1 6-1

Roberta Vinci def. Nicole Vaidisova, 6-3 6-3

Klara Zakopalova def. Serena Williams, 6-4 3-6 6-1

Kaia Kanepi def. Sílvia Soler Espinosa, 6-4 6-2

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MPS Group Championships (Ponte Vedra Beach)

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Dominika Cibulkova def. Anastasia Rodionova, 6-1 6-3

Alona Bondarenko def. Kateryna Bondarenko, 4-6 6-4 6-3

Elena Vesnina def. Patricia Mayr, 1-6 6-3 6-2

A Different Animal

A few upsets in the clay tournaments we have going on this week - we lost Rainer Schuettler (#2) and Christophe Rochus (#7) in Casablanca and former champ Mardy Fish in Houston. It seems strange to be calling these players 'seeds' - they're certainly not what we would normally think of as high level players. But that's this time of the year, I guess.

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The clay season is both the most predictable and unpredictable swing of the year, in my opinion. The top players - players like Rafa Nadal and Nicolas Almagro, very rarely lose on this surface. Often with the top players you get a random upset here and there, but you very rarely see this on clay, I think. Look at Rafa's record - he's lost, what, two matches over the past four years? One was to Federer and the other one was to Juan Carlos Ferrero when he was pretty nastily injured. Other than that, he's been solid as a rock. Almagro, the Prince of Clay, is similar, though obviously on a lesser scale.

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But when you skip down a rung or two to the rest of the top ten and the guys that are supposed to be at the top... on clay, it seems like the playing field is pretty different. You get a lot more upsets here. I don't know if it's just the claycourters upsetting those who are more consistent year-round or whether it's more arbitrary, but you certainly get some random results that you probably wouldn't normally see.

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You've got to wonder whether Roland Garros should adopt a seeding system like hat of Wimbledon - based not only on current ranking but on previous performance on that surface as well. Clay is a different animal and the top ten rankings don't really reflect the real rankings. Nadal #1 and Federer #2, yes, but the rest of the top ten...? I think there'd have to be a significant reshuffle.

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Today's Results

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Grand Prix Hassan II (Casablanca)

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Igor Andreev def. Rabie Chaki, 3-6 6-3 7-5

Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo def. Rainer Schuettler, 6-4 7-6 (7-5)

Albert Montanes def. Reda El Amrani, 6-2 7-5

Marc Gicquel def. Kristof Vliegen, 7-5 6-3

Juan Carlos Ferrero def. Christophe Rochus, 6-2 6-3

Potito Starace def. Oscar Hernandez, 4-6 6-3 6-3

Olivier Rochus def. Mehdi Ziadi, 4-6 6-2 6-1

Teimuraz Gabashvili def. Fabio Fognini, 6-2 6-1

Santiago Ventura def. Oliver Marach, 6-1 6-1

Nicolas Devilder def. Daniel Koellerer, 6-3 6-4

Mischa Zverev def. Flavio Cipolla, 6-2 3-6 6-3

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US Men's Clay Court Championships (Houston)

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Bjorn Phau def. Mardy Fish, 6-3 5-7 6-3

Sergio Roitman def. Agustin Calleri, 6-3 6-3

John Isner def. Michael Russell, 4-6 6-3 6-2

Tommy Haas def. Denis Gremelmayr, 6-3 6-3

Scoville Jenkins def. Alexander Peya, 0-6 6-4 6-3

Guillermo Garcia-Lopez def. Giovanni Lapentti, 1-6 6-0 6-2

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Andalucia Tennis Experience (Marbella)

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Jelena Jankovic def. Francesca Schiavone, 6-2 6-1

Anabel Medina Garrigues def. Anastasiya Yakimova, 6-1 6-3

Carla Suárez Navarro def. Maret Ani, 7-5 7-5

Sara Errani def. Julia Schruff, 7-5 7-6 (8-6)

Virginia Ruano Pascual def. Tathiana Garbin, 6-1 2-6 6-1

Andreja Klepac def. Severine Brémond, 5-7 6-2 6-2

Renata Voracova def. Pauline Parmentier, 7-6 (10-8) 4-6 6-4

Arantxa Rus def. María-Teresa Torró-Flor, 4-6 6-2 6-0

Ekaterina Ivanova def. Masa Zec Peskiric, 6-0 6-4

Polona Hercog def. Stéphanie Cohen-Aloro, 3-6 7-6 (7-4) 6-2

Selima Sfar def. Estrella Cabeza Candela, 6-3 7-6 (7-4)

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MPS Group Championships (Ponte Vedra Beach)

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Nadia Petrova def. Olga Govortsova, 6-2 6-4

Aleksandra Wozniak def. Jill Craybas, 6-4 6-4

Elena Vesnina def. Peng Shuai, 2-6 6-1 6-3

Sabine Lisicki def. Mariya Koryttseva, 6-3 7-6 (7-3)

Tamira Paszek def. Melinda Czink, 6-7 (5-7) 6-4 6-4

Anastasia Rodionova def. Galina Voskoboeva, 6-4 6-2

Daniela Hantuchova def. Anastasija Sevastova, 2-6 6-4 7-6 (7-5)

On The Red Stuff

Miami is ended and the summer is gone, and now we have embarked onto the clay swing, one of the most interesting swings of the year. I love the clay swing - the one before Roland Garros, anyway. The clay tournaments after Wimbledon seem really stupid to me - though I haven't examined the new schedule, so I don't know what they're like now...

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But I digress. Clay is here - so what can we expect? Who is going to shine and who is going to fall?

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We talked about Andy Murray yesterday - this season is going to be a huge test for him, a real measure of his claim to being in that elite top echelon. Nadal, Federer and Djokovic have all proved their abilities on all surfaces, all making semis at all four Slams - can Murray do the same and bring it on the red stuff? Though speaking of that top echelon, they'll need to maintain (or, in the cases of Federer and Djokovic, improve) their current form. I don't think anyone would ever doubt the ability of Rafa Nadal to absolutely dominate this swing. Federer has consistently shown himself to be the world #2 on clay. But who else is there to look out for?

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Tommy Robredo is one that I would definitely keep an eye on. He's been playing fiercely well over the last little while - maybe not so much at Indian Wells and Miami, but he's been pretty consistently good throughout the year. I think he's a real shot at a semi-final berth - I nominated him about a month ago for this position, and I'm sticking with. Obviously it depends which way the draw falls - I wouldn't pick him over Rafa, for example - but I like his chance to go deep.

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I'm also hoping David Ferrer can bring the form on clay, on which he is consistently good, and also Stan Wawrinka, who really earned his stripes on clay last year with that final in Rome. I'm also going to be interested to see how Andy Roddick goes on the red stuff, which is definitely not his arena - he's been playing quite well of late and it'll be interesting to see how it translates.

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And from the Stars? Gulbis - he made the quarters at Roland Garros last year. But Thomaz Bellucci will also be good to watch, and I'd keep an eye on Eduardo Schwank as well. And there's also a young Portuguese kid I'm keeping an eye on - Frederico Gil. He's not quite a Star yet, but worth watching...

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Today's Results

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Grand Prix Hassan II (Casablanca)

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Victor Hanescu def. Steve Darcis, 6-4 7-5

Florent Serra def. Thomaz Bellucci, 6-3 6-3

Ivan Ljubicic def. Arnaud Clement, 7-6 (8-6) 5-7 6-4

Frederico Gil def. Alberto Martin, 6-3 3-6 7-6 (7-4)

Ivan Navarro def. Sergiy Stakhovsky, 7-5 4-2 retired

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US Men's Clay Court Championship (Houston)

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Jurgen Melzer def. Robert Kendrick, 6-1 7-5

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Andalucia Tennis Experience (Marbella)

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Sorana Cirstea def. Ioana Raluca Olaru, 6-4 6-2

Roberta Vinci def. Tsvetana Pironkova, 6-7 (4-7) 6-2 6-4

Nicole Vaidisova def. Angelique Kerber, 3-6 6-4 6-4

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The MPS Group Championships (Ponte Vedra Beach)

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Kateryna Bondarenko def. Barbora Zahlavova Strycova, 7-6 (7-2) 6-2

Madison Keys def. Alla Kudryavtseva, 7-5 6-4

Murray's Mountain

I don't think anyone is surprised that Andy Murray took out Novak Djokovic in the final of Miami - probably not even Novak. He might have beaten Federer in the semis... but I think we can all pretty much agree that Roger beat himself there (see Roger rant yesterday). I think we're looking at the change of the guard here in the #3 spot - I would not be at all surprised to see Murray take it over in the near future.

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Thing is, I have never been able to pinpoint why Murray is so good. He's a great all-court player, and a great counter-puncher, but there's nothing you can pinpoint - like the Nadal and Federer forehands, for example - that makes him so dangerous. I think I've compared him to Lleyton Hewitt before, and while that probably isn't exactly right, it's not that far off.

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But Murray has one real challenge ahead of him if he really wants to step up and grab that #3 spot. Come the hardcourt season, he is consistently outperforming just about everyone, except possibly Nadal at the moment. But on clay... I read an interview once that said that Murray was focusing on the Aussie Open, US Open and Wimbledon and that Roland Garros wasn't a priority for him. But if he wants to be a real challenger in a game where the two blokes at the top are comfortable on any surface, as shown by their ability to make and win finals on all these surfaces, then he needs to be able to do it on clay.

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I don't think there's any reason why the Murray game shouldn't translate onto clay. Sure, the speed of the hardcourts is good for him, but look at Federer's game - he thrives on quickness and speed as well, and he's made three consecutive Roland Garros finals. I've never actually seen Murray play on clay, come to think of it... probably because he generally gets knocked out so early he never actually plays too much on it! If I were him - this is my completely uneducated opinion - I'd play a good three or four tournaments before Roland Garros, just to make sure he gets the matches in, even if he loses early. I'd be open to the possibility of wildcards. Because if he wants to be in that top echelon, to challenge the Hispano-Suisse domination machine, and especially Djokovic, his most immediate challenge rankings-wise, someone who has proved his quality on clay, Murray needs to find a level of comfort on the red stuff.

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Can Murray climb the mountain? It's going to be very interesting to see!

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Today's Results

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Sony Ericsson Open (Miami)

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Men's Draw

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Andy Murray def. Novak Djokovic, 6-2 7-5

Perfect Match

So I'm checking my email today like any normal person would when I come across an email from Tennis Australia. Not unusual - I'm on their mailing list, I get emails from them all the time. But this one was a little... different.

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'Who is your tennis perfect match?' it asked. Intrigued, I clicked, wondering if the trashy title was really some witty cover from an actual tennis story... given as this is my usual technique. But no. It was a link. To a multiple-choice quiz that enabled you to discover which tennis player was your 'perfect match.'

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Questions included things like your reaction to getting fired, which type of guy you would approach at a party, your ideal date, how you'd like a man to dress, a man's most important quality, and your 'dream of a man.' My reaction? I hope to God that this is something someone at Tennis Australia found somewhere - that is, I hope they spent no time or money putting it together. Because they have a friggin' GRAND SLAM to organise.

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Not that I don't appreciate the lighter side of tennis - I love the offcourt segment that Tennis Australia does each week, just like I love the offcourt goss on Down the Line! But this is beyond fun. This is trashy. It's funny, yes... but with the Aussie Open just round the corner, I hope dearly that it's a flip, 'oh, this is amusing!' thing, because if they spent money on that that they could have spent on something good I will be so annoyed. There's already an obscene amount of money being pumped into this ridiculous 'Day on the Baseline' thing. People should not need the encouragement of Gabriella Cilmi and whomever else to come to the tennis. Is not the tennis enough attraction for that? SPEND THE MONEY ON THE TENNIS, DAMN IT!

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Yeah, yeah, I know you're all wondering who my tennis perfect match is. But need you even ask? Do you think it would seriously be anyone other than Roger?

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...though I confess that I did take it a second time and rigged it so I would get Marat...

A Kind of Quiet Confidence

The big man R-Fed has released his schedule for next year, and what everyone's talking about is its lack of clay. 'Only two events!' they say. 'Mon dieu! How will he ever be ready in time for Paris! Ca alors!'

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Me... well, I think back to 2006. That was arguably Roger's best showing at Paris - ie. the tightest final he gave Rafa, possibly in competition with 2007 - and he played exactly two tournaments before Roland Garros: Monte Carlo and Rome. (God, who can forget that Rome final in 2006? That was possibly the most intense tennis match I have ever seen: Roger and Rafa's greatest match up outside Wimbledon this year. And then they made Masters Series finals three sets. Yeah, that was smart. Cough cough.) This year he played a crushing clay season - four tournaments - and got crushed in the final in return. So why not return to the old ways? I think it's terribly clever. Let us not forget that Roger will be looking for his fourteenth - or, probably, his fifteenth - Slam at Roland Garros. I think he's very clever.

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I'd be more worried about Rafa's schedule, to tell the truth. With all his knee problems, will he continue to play four clay tournaments? Kid's gotta cut back, or he'll be retiring before Roger even begins thinking about it.

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And is anyone else thinking that this tournament in Abu Dhabi kind of looks like fun? I'm unsure why so many people have agreed to play it - Roger's pre-Australian Open schedule is looking chockas, what with that and Doha and Kooyong - but it's going to be a cracker of an exhibition tournament. Everyone who's anyone will be there - just what I like to see. Kind of like a mini Masters Cup: only this time I reckon the real Master will come out on top. I have a good feeling about Federer's 2009 - a kind of quiet confidence. Grand Slam ahoy!

Roger Federer World

Somewhere out in the sky in that vast belt of rocks between Mars and Jupiter, is the newly christened Rafael Nadal asteroid. Until a few days ago, it was known as the 128036 asteroid. Its new name is a little cooler, methinks.

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Apparently it was named as a tribute to 'one of the greatest tennis players of all time.' I assume that means they're waiting till they find a suitably lovely planet before giving it the name of THE greatest tennis player of all time. I'll be one of the first in the line when the rocket flies with the first human emigrants to Roger Federer World, let me tell you. Now wouldn't that be a fine place to live?!

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Actually, that would be a great place to live. Imagine a world where everyone lived like a Federer. It would have a charter based on fairness and niceness and politeness. It would be a planet based on fair play and good sportsmanship - and, of course, genius and beauty. Though of course, if everyone was like Roger, maybe he wouldn't be so special. But Roger Federer World would be a wonderful place. No Djokovics there.

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Four tournaments for men going on this week - and again, three of them (Kitzbuhel, Amersfoort and Umag) are on clay. I DO NOT UNDERSTAND. Why, ye players, why do you play on the clay? I would be heading straight to Indianapolis, where they are sensible and play on hard courts - and also are located in North America, where the tour pretty much lives for the next little while (Olympics aside.) But the top seeds in Indy are James Blake, Gilles Simon, Dmitry Tursunov and Sam Querrey. The cutoff for direct admission is 169. Hardly the most distinguished field ever.

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Let's check out the stats on the three clay tournaments. In Kitzbuhel (which got rained out today), the top four seeds are Andreas Seppi, Rainer Schuettler, Agustin Calleri and Potito Starace. Last direct acceptance at 156. In Amersfoort, we have Marc Gicquel, Jose Acasuso, Steve Darcis and Marcel Granollers (all of whom receive first round byes... badness) with a last direct acceptance at 157. And in Umag, the top four dudes are Fernando Verdasco, Ivo Karlovic, Carlos Moya and Igor Andreev, and the last direct acceptance is 137.

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Now, none of the top TOP guys are playing this week (though interestingly, Ivan Ljubicic is the #5 seed in Umag, and he did used to be a top TOP guy not so long ago) but still, the fact remains that Indy has the lowest direct acceptance of all the tournaments. Why would you not make a run for it? Is the schism between claycourters and the others really so pronounced? Are claycourters so good on clay and so rubbish on everything else that they'll endanger the rest of their season just to rack up points on the red stuff?

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I just do not understand. Surely, if you are a claycourter, you want to practice on hardcourts so you can do well at the US Open, yesno? But I suppose you would also want to stick to what you're good at so as to maintain your points... but it just seems so bizarre to me. I know there is a big difference between clay and hard courts, but is it really that pronounced? Why, WHY is there such a demand for clay tournaments?

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And why clay? Why not grass? Is it just a matter of what people have grown up on? But look at Federer. He grew up on clay, and while he is obviously the second best player on it in the world, it's still his least favourite surface. And there are SO MANY claycourters. I can only think of one specific grasscourt player off the top of my head, and even then, he rarely makes that much of an impact - it's Nicolas Mahut, by the way. And Roland Garros is great and all, but it's Wimbledon that is really the holy grail of tennis - always has been, always will be.

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Back in the day, when Rod Laver won his Slam, three of the four Slams were on grass, with Roland Garros the exception. What happened between then and now? When did people go off grass?

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The only post-Wimbledon grass court tournament (to my knowledge, anyway) is Newport, which Fabrice Santoro won last week. But there's clay tournaments pretty much the whole year round - you have the South American swing right after the Australian Open, where you have Vina del Mar and a whole host of other tournaments. This is in the leadup to Indian Wells and Miami - so why play clay? Then you have Estoril and the European clay swing, which is the swing that makes sense, as it leads up to Roland Garros. But then there's Warsaw - which Davydenko played and won this year, and then went on to promptly lose in the first round of Wimbledon. And still now, clay everywhere! You can hardly get away from the stuff!

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If it was one clay tournament and three hard court ones, then maybe it would make more sense. But you cannot tell me that three quarters of the players on the tour are specialist claycourters. I refuse to believe that.

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I know I have flogged this dead horse about nine hundred times, but it just does not make any sense to me at all. Quite apart from anything, the Olympics are coming up, and they are not on clay. Oh no, they are not.

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Any answers welcomed. Because surely, if three quarters of the players on the tour are clay courters, three quarters of the tour would be played on clay. The important tournaments, anyway. But no. We have one claycourt Grand Slam and three Masters Series events, all crammed into one quarter of the season. That would be one quarter, not three. Whereas the hard courts get two separate seasons and two Slams. I know the Australian and the US are different surfaces, but they're both hard, when it comes down to it.

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So what the hell is going on, Kitzbuhel, Umag, Amersfoort? Jodi demands to know. Why the clay? WHY?

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Today's Results

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Dutch Open Tennis (Amersfoort)

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Martin Vassallo Arguello def. Alberto Brizzi, 6-4 6-3

Alberto Martin def. Yuri Schukin, 7-6 (10-8) 6-4

Teimuraz Gabashvili def. Thierry Ascione 6-2 7-6 (7-1)

Christophe Rochus def. David Marrero, 7-5 6-2

Thiemo de Bakker def. Adrian Cruciat, 7-5 6-4

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ATP Studena Croatia Open (Umag)

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Fabio Fognini def. Ricardas Berankis, 6-3 6-2

Boris Pashanski def. Gianluca Naso, 6-3 2-6 7-6 (11-9)

Roko Karanusic def. Francesco Piccari, 6-2 6-2

Mathieu Montcourt def. Antonio Veic, 6-4 6-2

Filippo Volandri def. Flavio Cipolla, 6-1 6-4

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Indianapolis Tennis Championships (Indianapolis)

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Gilles Simon def. Nicolas Mahut, 6-2 3-6 6-3

Dmitry Tursunov def. Igor Kunitsyn, 6-3 7-5

Benjamin Becker def. Kristian Pless, 6-3 6-4

Joseph Sirianni def. Mikhail Ledovskikh, 6-3 1-2 retired

Yen-hsun Lu def. Justin O'Neal, 7-6 (7-2) 7-6 (14-12)

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Bank of the West Classic (Stanford)

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Sybille Bammer def. Olga Govortsova, 7-5 6-2

Alisa Kleybanova def. Elena Vesnina, 4-6 6-2 6-3

Ai Sugiyama def. Alexa Glatch, 6-2 3-6 7-5

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Gastein Ladies (Bad Gastein)

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Zhang Shuai def. Joanna Sakowicz, 7-5 6-2

Tereza Hladikova def. Yevgenia Savranska, 6-4 2-6 7-6 (7-4)

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And today in Stars of the Past, Stars of the Future: Marin Cilic.

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Marin Cilic must seem like the boogeyman for Paul-Henri Mathieu. They have met in four consecutive tournaments now, and while the first match went the way of the Frenchman, since then, it has been all Cilic. This nineteen year old Croat took out Mathieu in the third round of Wimbledon, and now, on clay, has taken him out in Bastad. Mathieu was the defending champion, and this loss to Cilic will probably see him fall out of the top twenty. Cilic is that kind of player.

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Cilic has been rising quietly through the rankings. He made no spectacular leap like Jeremy Chardy, no one big Slam finish that sent him soaring up. Just solid consistency - which, one would think, is a pretty good asset for a player of his age. Like Chardy, he was in the fourth round of Slam this year - beating his bunny Mathieu ensured that - but it wasn't really a surprise. Cilic is rising so steadily and solidly that no one has really seen him coming.

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How long will this continue? Are we going to look up in two years time and find a twenty one year old Marin Cilic in the top ten, challenging at all the Slams? Where did he come from? we will wonder. But he will have been there all along - a steam train heading up the rankings, a tortoise to Chardy's hare. But one expects that it is Cilic, rather than Chardy, that will have the longer career.