Sunshine and Roses

Yo kids! Two posts with actual paragraphs in a row, though this is going to be a short one, on account of I have no access to televised sport at the mo and cannot tell you what actual tennis actually looks like right now.

Though taking this proviso in mind and noting that I have no idea what is actually going on on court, I am super impressed with Ahndee Mooray right now.

For serious. I have never been a fan of Toothface, but it would take someone with a heart of stone not to look at a non claycourter dude who's made the semis at Wimbledon on one good foot and also gone on to make the Queen's final and not to admit a modicum of respect. There's also a modicum of 'dude, be real, Wimbledon is coming up and playing on your bum ankle is a moronic idea' but there's something about the idea of almost ridiculous chutzpah which is very appealing. Well done, Andy. Kudos.

And then there's James 'I'm so obscure I haven't even heard of myself' Ward and his semis run, only halted by a Rafa-beating Jo-W. The Brits are doing so well at Queen's that their national hopes are so high that they are destined to all lose first round at the main event. Even Ahndee. But for now, everything is sunshine and roses.

So yeah. Well done. I'm easing myself back into the blog world and cannot make many more insightful comments. Except Jo. Wow. That dude is playing RAD. That means he must be due for an injury...?

Looking Back - Melbourne

It shouldn't be hard to guess that this was my absolute favourite result of the year. There are few things that make me more gleeful than the sight of Roger Federer kissing a Grand Slam trophy.

It seems a long time ago now, the Australian Open. The next one is right around the corner, and here's hoping we have a repeat result! But the ripple effect of this tournament was felt throughout the year - not so much for Federer, I think, who didn't really play this well again until after Wimbledon, but for a few other players, this tournament was massive.

This was about the midpoint of Rafa's 'slump' (note inverted commas), and it certainly wasn't his best tournament of the year... which might have had something to do with the fact that he was a bit injured. However, he did play some excellent tennis, and those two sets he played against Andy Murray were highly interesting stuff. It'll be interesting to see how he backs up at the tournament in 2011, presumably uninjured and with the wind of success firmly at his back.

But let's talk Murray, because I think this was where his year was set. Once again, he got to a Slam final. And this time, it was clear he expected himself to win. And he was absolutely humbled - totally brought low - by the might of Roger Federer. And even now, I don't know if he has fully recovered from that.

Oh, he's beaten Federer since. He's had some good results - you don't get to be the guy that played Rafa tight like that in London without a bit of something going on. But at the Slams this year, Murray has looked spectacularly unconvincing. For so long, everyone has said that it's only a matter of time until Andy gets a Slam. This year... we started to doubt that. And those seeds were planted in Australia.

Murray played some fantastic tennis. I will never forget that passing shot he hit against Cilic that totally got him back into that match. But that final - and, in particular, that tiebreaker - broke him and did some bad damage to his psyche. Whether or not he recovered from that is anyone's guess. I don't think he has - and I don't think he will until such time as he manages to lift a Slam trophy over his head. Recovering from doubt like that... well, it's not going to happen overnight. Or even overyear.

The other two semi finalists ended up being spectacular non events this year. Tsonga was injured and Cilic... well, I don't know where he went.

The tournament was Federer's, of course, and I could gush for a long time about how happy it made me. But I won't. I will just say this - the world is a lovely place when he has a trophy in his hands. It is, somehow, intrinsically right.

The New Ivan

A 5-0 loss, Switzerland? Really? Really?!

We are SO not speaking.

But Serbia! How about you?! Novak Djokovic, you done good, but how about you, Janko Tipsarevic? You are a freaking HERO.

This is going to be a really interesting final. France have the talent to beat just about any squad in the world - scratch that, France can beat anyone if they play well. They have amazing depth and an ability to substitute quality players that only Spain can really come close to matching. I mean, look at the talent in their stable - Monfils, Gasquet, Tsonga, Llodra, Benneteau, Clement... and that's just off the top of my head. Those Frenchies can play.

But the highest ranked player in that tie is going to be Novak Djokovic, and unless Tsonga is back and playing awesomely, I don't see him getting beaten in either singles rubber. And Janko Tipsarevic, well... if he can beat Tomas Berdych in a clutch singles rubber and then come back a couple of days later and win a live fifth in convincing fashion... such is the stuff that Davis Cup heroes are made of. That is Ivan Ljubicic level stuff right there. And Janko, I think you just might be the new Ivan.

Talent Isn't Everything

As I have absolutely nothing else to talk about, I'm going to talk some more about Davis Cup. And what I have to say is this: if France don't win it this year, they are missing a huge opportunity.

Think about it. They have beaten Spain, the out and out favourites. They have so many players who can be so good on any given day... but who can also be terrible on any given day. If they all come out firing - can you imagine a France with a switched-on Jo Tsonga and Gael Monfils playing singles? - then nothing short of a miracle can stop them.

Of course, they're playing Argentina in the semis, and the Argentinians have a miracle up their sleeves. He goes by the name of David Nalbandian, and as just about any Davis Cup playing nation can tell you, he can derail the fiercest of challenges. But he is but one man, and the French squad is packed with talent.

What the French squad is not packed with is consistency. If they could find this like they did against Spain, they would be unstoppable. There are reasons why one man squads like Nalbandian's Argentina and Djokovic's Serbia can do so well, and that is maximising the consistency of a star player. France have a whole bunch of stars... but none of them seem to shine at the same time.

I hope, for their sake, much as I want Bandy to do well at this Cup they call Davis, that all the French guns fire in the semis. Because to have that much talent in a tennis nation and not have anything to show for it? That is a bit of a tragedy.

A Piece of History

No matter what happens in this tournament, no matter who wins, no matter who visits, this is the match Wimbledon 2010 is going to be remembered for.

Isner. Mahut. These names will go down in history.

I don't think we'll ever see a set to match the epic 70-68 that was the final set between these two gladiators. I don't want to go on about this match too much, because, hello, enough people have done it already, but I can't not. It was a match where time literally lost all meaning. It was a match where the sport of tennis became the cruellest sport there is, because there could only be one winner. It was a match that made all the other sports in the world seem like completely pansy sports, because it just did not end.

...and it was also the match that drew some focus away from the World Cup and reminded us that soccer is not the only global sport!

I have so much respect for both these guys now. This is what tennis is about. It's matches like these which remind me why a fifth set tiebreaker would be the worst idea ever - because how could you truly evaluate this match, this drama, in a first to seven breaker?

Respect, John. Respect, Nic. This match is history.

(Also, Nicolas totally lost that game at 69-68 because everyone would laugh if the score got to 69-69. You know it's true.)

There were a heap of five set matches around the grounds yesterday (um, 10-8, Jo-W? what kind of set is that? That's barely double digits!) but I want to quickly discuss Rafa's particular battle - looks like Roger and Nole aren't the only ones who have done it tough early on. I don't think this is really signalling any great dystopic doom, but it is kind of interesting - haven't seen this level of challenge in the early rounds against so many of the top guys for a while!

Wimbledon 2010 - The Gents

We did the ladies yesterday, time for the gents. Wimbledon T-minus one day!

Roger's quarter: I don't think my pick in this quarter is going to be exactly revolutionary. Unlike Roland Garros, Roger has what I would call a better draw than his buddy Rafa. He opens up against Alejandro 'don't say my name' Falla, which you'd think would be not too bad. And the other big seed in this quarter, Davydenko, is fresh off injury and hasn't really been right since the whole beatdown at the Australian Open incident.

So yeah, surprises.

There are some interesting lurkers in this section, however. Andrey Golubev is going to be the one I keep my eye on, but I'm going to track the progress of Marsel Ilhan, Dustin Brown and Carsten Ball carefully. They're not exactly top ten material yet, but they're interesting guys with upset potential.

Winner: Roger. I am SUCH a revolutionary.
If not him, then: Heaven forbid such a thing occur. But I'm going to keep it Swiss and say Stan Wawrinka. I like his grass court game.
Dark horse: See note re heaven forbid. But I'm going to go with Berdych or, if the apocalypse happens to occur, Schuettler.
First round matches to watch: Tursunov/Schuettler, Luczak/Robredo, Brown/Melzer and Berdych/Golubev.

Novak's quarter: I'm going to be equally revolutionary and not pick Djokovic in this quarter, because please, what has he done these days? Wimbledon seems to bring out something special in Roddick, and much as I am not keen on the idea of a Roger/Andy semi, what with Soderling's retribution in Roland Garros, I can definitely see it happening.

I suppose Hewitt might be another contender in this quarter, but I am really not on that bandwagon and frankly don't see it happening - not over best of five. The biggest threats otherwise, in my opinion, are Marin Cilic and Philipp Kohlschreiber. They haven't done much of much lately, but they're both solid guys who could just solid their ways into the semis, should everyone crumble around them.

Also keep an eye on Yen-hsun Lu. I like him on grass.

Winner: Roddick. What a daring gamble, Jodi!
If not him, then: I'm going to say Cilic. I like him on grass.
Dark horses: Kohlschreiber and (sigh) Hewitt. Emphatically NOT Bernard Tomic. I don't think his style is especially well suited to grass.
First round matches to watch: Schwank/Korolev, Fish/Tomic and Monfils/Mayer.

Muzz's quarter:I can't figure out if it's more revolutionary to pick for or against Muzz in this quarter. I don't like the way he's playing, nor do I think he will react especially well to the British pressure (particularly if the English team goes out in the World Cup) but his quarter of the draw is really not that tough. If this were Roland Garros, he'd have cause to be scared, but there's not huge stacks of grass court prowess going on in this section.

That said, I wouldn't want to face Sam Querrey's serve on grass if I were a pro tennis player. No sirree.

I suppose you never know what Jo Tsonga can pull either, but he's injured (yesno?) Anyway, I picked him to make the semis in Paris and the boy let me down. Same with Ferrero - have never really seen him play on grass, but can't see it suiting him especially well.

Winner: Muzz. For lack of a better option.
If not him, then: Sam Querrey. See notes re serve.
Dark horses: Watch that tumbleweed going by. Oh, all right, I'll pick Verdasco and Tsonga. And Marco Chiudinelli, just for funsies.
First round matches to watch: Benneteau/Vliegen, Tsonga/Kendrick and Querrey/Stakhovsky.

Rafa's quarter: Now this is not a nice quarter for Rafa. The current question mark over Gulbis (is he in? is he out?) might lessen his angst a little, but the fact remains that he has a rocky road to the final... and I'm a little worried about how his body's holding up. Boy's played a LOT of tennis lately (even if he was winning all his matches in straights).

So I really am going to be revolutionary. I'm not picking Rafa. Faint now. Off you go.

I'm giving my vote to Soderling. I think he has the drive to prove himself outside Roland Garros, and you can bet that if he met Rafa in the quarters, he would want to give him what-for in recompense for the finals in Paris. I haven't seen a great deal of him on grass, but I think he could definitely keep the ball low on Rafa, and that would help his cause a lot.

Also, watch out for John Isner. That's all I'm saying.

Winner: Robin Soderling. He wants it.
If not him, then: Rafa. I'm not THAT revolutionary.
Dark horses: John 'I could kill you with my serve' Isner. Youzhny could also be a spoiler and Baghdatis has been to the semis here before.
First round matches to watch: Ferrer/Kiefer, Youzhny/Sela and Nadal/Nishikori.

That leaves us with the following semi finalists:

FedEx vs Andy R
Andy M vs The Yoker

I think either of these matches could go either way. But if someone had a gun to my head and forced me to choose, I would pick the following final:

FedEx vs Andy M

I'm as surprised as you are. I certainly didn't expect myself to be tipping Muzz for the final. And here I find myself doing it. That said, Soderling is totally going to take him to five. And if it does end up that Nadal makes the semis, he will make Muzz his bitch. But the winner of this hypothetical final is...

FedEx.

Told you I was a revolutionary.

What are your thoughts?

Pathetic Fallacy

Welcome to Weel 2 at Roland Garros, where it is all happening. The skies were stormy and pathetic fallacy abounded as some of the big names of tennis crumbled under the pressure, unable to weather the storm. Count the incidences of literary wordplay in that sentence. Oh yeah.

Some people, on the other hand, had a cruise-y ride. But we're getting down to the business end, and things are getting veeeeeeeery interesting at ol' RG.

The winners: Surprise, surprise, I'm starting with Fed. He played a little scratchier than I would have liked against Wawrinka at times, but when you can come away with a straight sets victory over a player like Stan, you're doing OK. I was very happy.

He'll face the Yoker next, who's also appearing in this column (hopefully for the last time this tournament, fingers crossed fellow Fedfans!) He absolutely pulverised Marin Cilic. See above re 'when you can come away with a straight sets victory over a player like...' It is going to be on till the break of dawn in FedSod II: Electric Boogaloo.

And Nadia Petrova - here's looking at you, kid! Venus was my pick for the final from this half of the draw, and Nadz absolutely annihilated that negligee off the court. Well, maybe annihilated is a little strong, but it was a very tidy putaway. Let's just say I would now not be at all surprised to see Nadz in the final. This side of the draw isn't the strongest evah and Nadz has a good a chance as any.

The losers: Speaking of the negligee... Venus. Big time. I really thought she had what it takes to go deep this year, but looks like my hunch is wrong, wrong, wrong. Petrova is playing really good stuff (as evidenced by her appearance in the winners column) but Venus did not play a good match here. Disappointing for V. Still... I was going to say it'll get her onto the grass earlier, but it totally won't, because she has doubles. Further disappointment, then.

And Andy Murray. No one ever expects him to do that well at Roland Garros, but surely he should at least be able to play competitively with Berdych. I actually thought that was a really favourable match for Murray - I thought he could bamboozle Tomas with some moonballage - but no. Fail. Not to denigrate Berdych's achievement here, because he did good, but this was not a great performance from Muzz.

The disappointments: Jo Tsonga. It is very, very disappointing that he had to retire, not least because I picked him for the semis and now my bracket is all wrong. And it is very disappointing for the home team that is French tennis - Bartoli and Rezai did not exactly exceed expectations, and then their last hope caved to a back injury.

Get well soon, Jo.

The scraped-in-by-the-skin-of-teeth: Ladies and gentlemen, Miss Caroline Wozniacki. I have actually been totally pleasantly surprised by Caro this tournament - I foresaw an early exit for sure. But in this weaker half of the women's draw, she actually stands a decent chance of getting through to the finals. The finalist is going to be either Caro, Nadz, Lena D or Schiavone - not all outside the realms of possibility, but not my initial picks, that's for sure.

And though it wasn't quite skin-of-teeth, I have to talk JuJu here. I thought MaSha had her when she went up that break, but JuJu staged an awesome fightback. I'm sad for MaSha - playing like she did, she deserved better than a third round. But then again, so did JuJu.

One to watch: Mikhail Youzhny. He is creeping through this draw very quietly - surprising, given his propensity for bashing his own head with his racquet. Now he's facing Berdych for a spot in the semis. This would be a big career jump for both of them - Youzhny has been to Slam semis once before, Berdych never - and it'll be interesting to see who comes out alive. I can't tell you why, but I'm like the headbanger on this one.

Get A Roof!

If there was one thing to take away from Day 4 at Roland Garros, it was this - GET A ROOF. Seriously, why is it that Australia, the Slam where it hardly ever rains, has two (soon to be three) of the things, and Roland Garros has none? When Wimbledon is ahead of the times you know something's a little interesting.

I know there's a lot of talk about Roland Garros moving sites - personally, I hope that doesn't happen, because this site is great, but how about a bit of the ol' upgrade? Melbourne Park is currently undergoing an AUD$363 million upgrade - surely Roland Garros can spring for a roof for Philippe Chatrier. I'm sure Wimbledon will give them the name of the guy they used.

But despite all this rain, there was actually some tennis - so without further ado...

The winners: The Yoker is coming through the draw like a hot knife through butter and I'm surprised people aren't talking about it more. He was on and off court in something like 71 minutes, which is obscenely quick. I will be very much surprised if he does not make it to the quarters (where I am hoping he will be stopped by Federer), because he is looking very, very good. He might have peaked a touch too soon, but we shall see, we shall see...

Speaking of winners, after a slow first set, Roger Federer is also in this column. Definitely a much better match than that four set nailbiter he played with Jose Acasuso last year.

Over with the ladies, I'm very surprised I'm saying this, but I am super impressed with Caro Wozniacki. She's not normally the type of player who closes out matches quickly, but she's had two quick matches now. Maybe this injury cloud hanging over her head has been good in a way, because it's forcing her to pull the trigger a little earlier and be more aggressive.

And also, no one's talking about her, but Nadia Petrova. Watch out for her!

The losers: Andrea Petkovic. Anyone that holds four match points (or, indeed, any match points) and then loses the match has got to be absolutely kicking themselves, and I'm sure this is exactly the case with Petkovic. It would have been an upset if she beat Kuznetsova, but she had her in the palm of her hand and still couldn't close it out.

Also, Lucie Safarova. I thought she was going to go a long, long way and then she went and lost to Polona Hercog in straights. This is a big time loss, because Safarova had the draw to go a long way. It's going to be really interesting to see who comes out of that side of the draw, because I just cannot pick it at all.

The disappointments:I have to put Gisela Dulko here. To go from beating Azarenka to losing to Chanelle Scheepers (yeah, I don't know who she is either) is fiercely disappointing.

I also have to put Taylor Dent here, because as brilliantly as Robin Soderling played, Dent played horrifically awfully. Seriously, dude, with your serve, you should be able to win more than two games in a best of five set match, even when your opponent is top ten. Really disappointing showing here.

The scraped-in-by-the-skin-of-teeth: As if I would go past Sveta on this one. She clawed this victory by the skin of her teeth, and I'm still not quite sure how she did it. Kudos to her, though. I love watching Sveta when she's playing well, and I'm really hoping she has sort of played herself into form. I would love it if she could come anywhere close to defending her title. Am not in any way expecting this to happen, but it would be awesome.

Story of the day: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga going apesh*t at tournament organisers about scheduling. I have to admit I don't have a lot of time for these kinds of temper tantrums - sure, it might put you out to have to play on Sunday, but suck it up, dude! But I am not a tennis player, so maybe I don't understand how difficult it is... and in any case, the tantrums are always mildly amusing, in a watching-a-train-wreck kind of way.

And the other story of the day is LightGate with Monfils and Fognini. Monfils nearly made the worst decision ever when he asked to push on at 4-all in the fifth... it will be interesting to see who comes out of this. I expect to be Monfils, but I would not be surprised if Fabio Fognini surprised him...

The Good, The Bad, The Ugly and The Still-In-It-Just

Roland Garros is here! Day one is over and gone and we have some stories and some winners and some losers and all kinds of things. Tennis, tennis, tennis - I love tennis! I love Roland Garros! (Yes, I have had a couple of glasses of wine...)

The winners: Robin Soderling. Big time. He smashed Laurent Recourderc like a guitar and looked very, very dangerous. I thought this was the best performance of the day by a long way - for the boys at any rate.

Over in the women, you have to go with Gisela Dulko, because that was quite some win she had over Vika Azarenka. See notes re smashing like a guitar. But another person that did some serious smashing was Aravane Rezai. That gold dress has given her superpowers, even though it's totally fug.

The losers: You can't go past Victoria Azarenka on this one, because this was one of the most disappointing performances I have seen in a long time. I thought this was going to be an upset win, but I didn't think it was going to be an upset shut out. Dulko absolutely destroyed Azarenka, but Azarenka destroyed herself as well.

There have been 'Azarenka is the next Vaidisova' opinions voiced. I think this is a bit OTT - Azarenka had a leg injury which she didn't take time off to heal, which was totally stupid, but not the end of the world. She really needs to take time off now, and this exit gives that, at least.

And also - Janko Tipsarevic. What kind of performance was that?

The disappointments: It's got to be Gulbis. This was a great win by Julien Benneteau, but obviously not the way that Gulbis wanted to conclude his clay tournament, especially when he's done so well at this tournament in the past. And the retirement... oh, Ernie. Not happy with you, chappie.

The scraped-in-by-the-skin-of-teeth: Jo-W Tsonga. He really, really shouldn't have gone five sets. I picked him to win his quarter and I will be mighty pissed off if he screws up my bracket. Obviously he hasn't been in le form d'awesome or anything, but his quarter is so eminently winnable...

That's all from Day One... oh, except for Dinara Safina breaking up with Zeljko Krajan! That made me actually very sad - I loved those crazy kids, with all their shouting... I kind of hope they get back together. I love them.

Roland Garros 2010 - The Gents

A little late but definitely better than never - we did the predictions for the girls yesterday, it's time for the boys. We have our first dude winner in Marin Cilic - he won, like, five seconds ago. But everything else is still up to fate...

(Oh, off the subject of dudes, well done to Sveta Kuznetsova for doing stupendously in her first round match. I really thought Sorana Cirstea was going to hurt her badly, but she cruised through with very little trouble at all. Yay Sveta.)

Okay. The dudes.

Roger's quarter: This is a stacked quarter and no mistake. I mean, it's not super heinous or anything like that, but it has every dark horse in it that I could have possibly imagined. Let's see who we have in there... Tipsarevic, Gulbis, Montanes, Monfils, Wawrinka... it's stacked. And then we have some big time seeds like Cilic and Soderling. And then randoms like Dmitry Tursunov (where have you been?)

But I'm not picking against Roger here. I know he's not been playing so well of late, but he peaks at Slams. We know this. And he has comparatively little pressure coming in here, when you consider what's been going on for him in years past. He's held that cup. He's been there. And it may sound cheesy, but I believe in him.

There are lots of people with a good shot in this quarter, but I don't think there's much that can overcome the Federer factor here. There could be a blockbuster quarter final with Soderling - that would be a nerve wracking match and no mistake! Insert Cilic here and you could have the same thing going on. But like I said - Roger all the way.

Winner: Roger Federer
If not him, then: Marin Cilic or Robin Soderling
Dark horse: Ernests Gulbis
First round matches to watch: Gulbis/Benneteau and Lapentti/Dent

Muzz's quarter: This may be Murray's quarter, but I don't know if I'd pick him to win it. He may have made the quarters last year, but I just don't think he's going there again - not just because he's not exactly Captain Clay, but due to this weird slump he's in. And with Nice champion Richard Gasquet up first round, I'm calling potential upset...

Compared to Federer's quarter, there's not as much going on in this one, and as far as I can see, the quarter is Jo-Wilfried Tsonga's to lose. He hasn't been playing spectacularly of late, but with his game, he has the ability to swing his way into the semis without too much trouble. There's not that many clay names in this quarter - not at all. Mikhail Youzhny and John Isner are the only dudes I can see who could seriously challenge...

...unless, and this is a very big unless, Andrey Golubev somehow catches fire like he did in Australia for a little bit. I haven't seen much of him on clay, but I was so, so impressed with what I saw from him in Australia this year. I will never forget sitting on a plane on the way to Perth and watching him absolutely demolish Igor Andreev. It ranks among some of the best tennis I have seen from people not named Federer, and I mean that.

Winner: Jo-Wilfried Tsonga
If not him, then: Mikhail Youzhny or John Isner
Dark horse: Andrey Golubev (and, while he's not exactly a dark horse, Andy Murray)
First round matches to watch: Petzschner/Ball and Isner/Golubev

Novak's quarter: Djokovic better not focus too much on the clay court Spaniards lurking in his quarter, because there's a big danger lurking in his first round - you can bet your bottom dollar that Evgeny Korolev will not be taking any prisoners. I'm really looking forward to this match, because while it doesn't have upset written all over it, it is bearing the label 'big possibility of an upset right here'.

But if he does get through it, there are the aforementioned Spaniards lurking in David Ferrer and Juan Carlos Ferrero. The quarter really should be on Djokovic's racquet, but I don't know if it will quite play out like that. These Spaniards might just annoy him into submission, and hunch-wise, I really like past champ Ferrero.

I feel like we should talk about Andy Roddick, but because he hasn't played since Miami, it is not unreasonable to say he might not have his clay legs yet, and he really hasn't performed that awesomely here in the past. He has a reasonably forgiving draw, however - Monaco in the third round should be his first real threat.

Just noticed that if Djokovic does get through Korolev, he might just run into a very, very hungry Kei Nishikori in the second round. I don't think he'd be so happy about that.

Winner: Juan Carlos Ferrero
If not him, then: David Ferrer or Novak Djokovic
Dark horse: Sam Querrey
First round matches to watch: Djokovic/Korolev and Starace/Marchenko

Rafa's quarter: Dootsiez at All I Need Is A Picket Fence had it right when she said this quarter was full of people not named Nadal. It's full of Spaniards who would make a Djokovic or a Murray quail - the Almagros and Verdascos of the world - but they seem a little pale next to the might of Rafa, who is hungrier than ever before to get this title.

Gee, I wonder who will this section...?

I am hoping that Gianni Mina performs well in the first round, however, because he is an exciting young dude. I don't think he'll do anything sacrilegious like win a set, but at least a set of good competitive tennis would do wonders for his confidence. (And, indeed, the confidence of any player, ever, who could stay close to Rafa on the dirt).

Ljubicic and Bellucci are also good clay players active in this section, and we all know how Philipp Kohlschreiber can pull an upset. Lleyton Hewitt is also here, seeded to face the big man in the third round. You can bet he's dirty about that. Because I can tell you right now who will this section.

Winner: Rafael Nadal
If not him, then: Nicolas Almagro (but it will be Rafa)
Dark horses: Ivan Ljubicic and Philipp Kohlschreiber (but it will be Rafa)
First round matches to watch: Llodra/Bellucci and Ljubicic/Lu

This leaves us with the following semis:

Federer vs Tsonga
Ferrero vs Nadal

I would not be surprised to see a total repeat of the Australian Open semi for the Federman - that win had some psych-stuff attached to it, if you like me. He might falter if he gets ahead of himself and starts thinking about the final, but I think he learned his lesson about that last year.

I wonder who could possibly win the other semi. The only question is how many bagels there will be in it.

Which leaves us with:

Federer vs Nadal

The eternal question - can Federer beat Nadal for the Roland Garros title? And much as my heart says yes he can, he can do whatever, he's awesome, I have to go with Rafa on this one. This is his backyard, and to say he's in form... understatement of the century.

What did you pick?

Best Name In Tennis

Thiemo de Bakker. One of the greatest names in tennis... just as a name, not as a player. Seriously, this is a great name.

Rafa beat him in Monte Carlo last week and everyone was like, 'meh, TdB. Come back to me when you beat someone awesome'. Which Rafa did. But I would like to contest that TdB is not un-awesome himself.

I mean, he beat Jo-Dub Tsonga. And Jo on clay... or Jo anywhere... that's really a bit of something.

I really don't know anything about de Bakker except that he has an awesome name. Which is really the whole reason I've devoted this very short blog post to him. But he's going to be someone to keep an eye on. I don't think he's going to pull a JMDP and win four tournaments in a row or anything... but he's consistently pulling results. He could be on the up.

And also, come on. Who has a better name? Thiemo de Bakker. That is a GREAT name.

Shmafa Out of Sight

It is super hard to believe that it has been ten months since Rafa Nadal won a title. Anyone who watched him play against Jo-Willy today... well, the Rafa that turned up today is the fierce, true steely Rafa, Captain of the Fight or Die (mostly Fight) squad. I love that Rafa. That dude is fierce.

Since his defeat at Roland Garros, we've seen an awful lot of Shmafa, Rafa's evil twin. Shmafa is still a pretty rad player - he is still, I would say, top ten, and he still wins a lot of stuff, but he's not the dude that won four Roland Garroses in a row, that is for sure. He's the dude that exhibits a little uncertainty, maybe misses an easy shot at a routine moment... the dude that is a half, a quarter, an eighth of a step short of what he should be, and you can tell it frustrates him.

But there was no sign of Shmafa today. It was Rafa, the true, the original and the best, that whaled on Jo-Dub and totally beat him into submission. And as Rafa himself knows, it takes a lot to beat Jo-Dub down.

This probably isn't a popular sentiment, coming from someone so strongly aligned with Camp Fed, but I really hope Rafa cleans up here in Miami. I hope he wins and wins good and carries that momentum forward into the clay season and plays like a god. I hope we don't see Shmafa for a long, long time - because good as Shmafa is, tennis isn't tennis with Rafa.

Novak on the Edge

I talked yesterday about how Federer's loss to Baghdatis was not indicative of any great slide in form, any more so than his 2007 loss to Canas was the beginning of an end (we all know how that turned out - three Slam year ahoy!) And this is all true.

However, it does not mean that Novak Djokovic's loss to Ivan Ljubicic is NOT indicative of some greater overall thing. (Fear my double negative). Because I would contend that this is the latest in a string of weird things that... well, let's just say I'm not exactly on the 'Djokovic will dominate the tour this year bandwagon'.

Maybe it's the newfound pressure of being #2 or something, but Djokovic looks tired whenever he steps out on court (moreso than usual, anyway). At the Australian Open, we saw a lot of this - he managed to cruise through four relatively weak opponents before physically crumbling when he hit the brick wall that is Jo Tsonga.

But that brick wall seems to be coming earlier and earlier. This time it was Ivan Ljubicic - who is made of awesome, don't get me wrong, but really not the kind of person Djokovic should be rolling over for.

I used to rag on Djokovic all the time for being a rude little douchebag. But maybe he needed that abrasiveness. Maybe it gave him the edge he needed to play tennis at the top. Because he seems to have lost that edge now, lost that fire, that desire... and if this trend continues, he's not going to stay at #2 or even #3 for much longer.

His Mine of Precious Stones; His Empery

Watching Roger Federer playing in the zone is like watching tennis porn. And the only person who feels dirty afterwards is the dude on the other side of the net, who has been made to look comprehensively ordinary.

Jo-Dub Tsonga is not an ordinary player. He is one of the most obscenely talented players on tour right now - save Federer himself and the now-retired Safin, I can't think of anyone with more natural talent. Today he was not at his best - he was a half-step slow, exhausted by the two five set matches he played to get through to his match.

But against a lot of other players, that might have been good enough. It would have been good enough to compete, at any rate, to grab some games, maybe a set.

Against Federer, he looked like a schoolboy.

There is an aura around the zoning Federer that is palpable. It is tangible, you can sense it , almost like a smell. When he dances around his (excellent) backhand to crunch that forehand in the corner, when you know that the next serve is going to be unreturnable, that that backhand is going to sail sweetly into the corner, that that volley he hits is going to be untouchable... you can sense it. As viewers, you can look at Federer and know exactly what he is thinking. Because he is not thinking. He just knows. He knows that this court is his kingdom and there is nothing he can try that will not work.

He is John Donne's To His Mistress Going To Bed with a tennis racquet. And it is achingly, achingly perfect.

Across the net is a guy trying to turn Donne into Marvell, to mute the perfection, to make it look less than it is, to mitigate it, to combat it, to do something, anything. But unlike Marvell, there is no one that can succeed when Roger Federer is in his happy place.

And here's hoping that when Roger Federer lines up in the final on Sunday against Andy 'Toothface' Murray, that he is not thinking. He is knowing - knowing that he is home, in his happy place.

Fix the Roger, Fix the World

I have a terrible nervous tic with Federer Slam matches that I'm sure a psychologist would find interesting. When things get tight - when Roger's not looking good - I start trying to fix things.

Not him, obviously - as he is far far away and, you know, on a tennis court, away from my frazzling. But things around me. I distinctly remember the Federer/Tipsarevic match a few years back that went deep into the fifth - in fact, there's a ye olde worlde blog post on here about it somewhere - going out into my overrun backyard and weeding. I couldn't fix Roger, so I had to fix my yard.

The same thing happened today. Roger was down a set, he was down a break, and he was playing like what could politely be described as 'absolute crap'. He was misfiring off every possible wing and would have made a few shots... if the court were three metres wider. Added to which Nikolay Davydenko was on fire like whoa. It was completely depressing.

So I started cleaning.

I started with the last vestiges of my unpacking from the Epic Tennis Adventure. I put on a few loads of laundry. I folded some only ones. I sorted through epic stacks of paper on my desk and threw most of them away. I put books back on bookshelves. I rehung clothes. I went all spring-cleaning-like.

And while I cleaned, while I fixed up my house, Roger fixed up his game and won a casual thirteen games in a row.

Then I stopped cleaning and all of a sudden! Kolya held serve. Well, we couldn't have that, so I started the pile of mending that had grown up around me over the past few months. I sewed on buttons. I hemmed things. I mended torn seams. I fixed things up.

It didn't work immediately - apparently it's not a fine art, my fix life = fix Roger act - and Davydenko won some games, and did some breaking, and it was all on serve. I looked up nervously from my mending and looked for more things to clean. But I persevered with the mending and Roger persevered with his winning. He got one break and was serving for it... but Davydenko suddenly became a zombie who wouldn't lay down. I set down my mending for a second to polish my window sill before I picked it back up again.

And it worked. I fixed it. As I sewed on the last missing button, as the last vestiges of sun set over Canberra, Roger Federer defeated Nikolay Davydenko in four crazy sets to reach his twenty third consecutive Grand Slam semi final.

I don't want to claim any credit for this (well, maybe a tiny bit). But it did seem oddly poetic. And made me wonder whether I should check myself into a mental hospital.

Back to, ah, more sane tennis talk - this was a really topsy-turvy match, but it really did show just what the difference is between Roger and Kolya, and the difference is this: gears. Roger was playing craptastically, so - seemingly without warning, after Kolya missed one single shot - he shifted gear and suddenly became King Roger of the Land of Fedgasm. Kolya certainly missed more after this, but it was a combination of forced errors and what I saw called 'mentally forced errors' the other day. Kolya played worse because Roger made him play worse.

Kolya did lift his game in the fourth set - and considerably - but it was kind of like he found himself (and the lines) a bit more after being shellshocked for thirteen games there. Federer came down from Cloud Nine (to approximately Cloud Seven) and so Kolya was able to compete more. But what is so good about his game - his consistency - may also be what is stopping him from going from extremely good to great. He has no upper level to shift to. This also means it's harder for him to go down, but if he can't work out the answer to a player, then he's in big trouble. He doesn't, at this stage, have anywhere to go.

I know one thing he can improve. He can get rid of those Viking axe chop two handed volleys and get some nice new ones. Then we'll be cooking.

But all this criticism aside, Kolya had a great tournament, and had he been in a different section of the draw, I think he could have gone further. I would have been very interested to see Murray and Davydenko play each other. That would be a really interesting match up of games.

But I digress. Kolya has found himself lately and while I think he's still getting used to some aspects of it - his newfound status as media darling, for example - he is here to stay. I would not be surprised at all to see him win some more big tournaments and to have some more deep Slam runs. And Irina Davydenko might just be my favourite WAG since Mirka. Any man that can pick Kolya up by his head (see photos from Kolya's victory in Shanghai) is fine by me.

Roger will now play the winner of the currently-in-progress Djokovic/Tsonga match. Who comes out of this match is anyone's guess at the moment - it's a total gunslinging shootout at the OK Corral at the moment. I'm not overly fussed over which it is - I think Roger can beat either of them. But I wouldn't mind them tiring each other out a little.

And a quick word to the women - Venus Williams and Victoria Azarenka, you should be ashamed of yourselves. You both had your matches completely won today before you threw them away. Not to take anything away from Li Na and Serena Williams respectively, who stole these matches back, but there has to be some serious losing going on to throw away leads that big. Oh, WTA. What a sad little place you can be.

Reverse Psychology

Channel 7 have this thing every year where they try to convince the world that Lleyton Hewitt is going to win the Australian Open, despite huge amounts of evidence to the contrary. This year was no different, but they managed to do it via the most ridiculous 'inspirational' montage I have ever seen.

'Roger will beat Lleyton.'

'Lleyton might get a set if Roger gets so bored he falls asleep.'

'Lleyton has no chance.'

'Roger will smash Lleyton like a guitar'.

(Words mine, but message = everyone they interviewed, from Jim Courier to Brad Gilbert to Darren Cahill to Roger Rasheed).

And this was supposed to be a pro-Lleyton inspiration montage. Perhaps reverse psychology was involved? Or something?

Anyway, no matter what was involved, the predictions of Everyone Who Means Anything came true and Federer's victory over Hewitt was total. There is nothing that Hewitt can do that really troubles Federer - he doesn't have the arsenal. His speed used to be his biggest weapon but he's a good half step short of where he used to be.

And then there is that whole thing where Federer has now beat him fifteen times in a row. There's some psychology for you, Channel 7.

Hardly any of the other men's quarters were quite so simplistic, however. Roger will now face his recent bugabear Nikolay Davydenko... though he will be very glad to see that Kolya went five sets when he really shouldn't have. Jo Tsonga also played a completely unnecessary five sets. Both Kolya and Jo were up two sets to love before Verdasco and Almagro, their respective opponents came back strong.

It's the first time I've ever seen Kolya spray so much, and I think it might have something to do with his mental strength rather than his game. This is his first experience of being talked about as a serious chance and I don't think he likes it much. It will be interesting to see how that plays out in his match against Federer - I think he will either be incredibly strong, because of his previous two victories, or incredibly weak, because to a degree, there is expectation that he will pull off the upset.

Intriguing.

I felt a bit sorry for Nando getting knocked out... but then I realised that he hit over twenty double faults and nipped that in the bud at once. Almagro really had no right to take Jo so deep so he can justifiably be proud - that was a great achievement from the little claycourt dude.

In the women, we - surprise, surprise - have the Williams sisters through, and I think you justifiably can predict a Serena/Justine final at this point. We also, for the first time, have two Chinese women in the quarters - great achievement! - and Vika Azarenka came through in a tight one, though Caz-Woz, her fellow teen queen got knocked out.

I blame the pom poms on her socks.

Writing From Afar

Usually, the dude that sneaks through the draw totally unnoticed until the fourth round or so is Nikolay 'playstation' Davydenko. This year is a bit different, because everyone's talking him about it (and I don't think he likes it much, though it hasn't hurt him at all so far - he's sliced through his opponents like a knife through hot butter). But it means that the role of 'dude no one talks about' is vacant.

And it's been filled by a pretty unlikely contender - Jo-Wilfried Tsonga.

I haven't seen much of Jo-Jo this tournament - largely because he's been playing on Hisense, where I have not been. But he's been quietly coming through the draw, and he's suddenly looking ominously good. He played very well against a dangerous Tommy Haas last night and came through in four, though it could very easily have gone five (Tommy was up 5-2 in the fourth before Jo-Dub came back to win it 7-5). I don't understand why he hasn't always been a major contender at Slams with the way he plays... injuries, I suppose.

But he is a scary good player. I'll be interested to see how far he goes!

Lleyton Hewitt also won in a prematurely-ended match against Marcos Baghdatis, and will now play Federer in the next round. He's already posturing about how he can beat Roger... which he hasn't done since 2003. Roger had a battle in the first round but he's been cruising over Hanescu and Montanes, who are not crapulent by any standard. I don't want to jinx Roger or anything... but let's say I will be very surprised if we see an Australian man in the quarters.

I also will be surprised if we see an Australian woman, though Sam probably has a better chance against Serena than Lleyton against Roger. I think there's one more round before Serena hits that Grand Slam place where she's virtually unbeatable and if Sam doesn't get too tight, I think she could take a set at least. But thinking is one thing, wishes are another... so we'll see.

I write this from my parent's house in Wollongong, having left the Open yesterday morning. I miss Melbourne already. There is nothing quite like being in the thick of it. Next year, next year, Jodi.

We had a lot of retirements in the men's draw yesterday - three, in fact. Baghdatis, Koubek and Youzhny all pulled out... I feel for Mikhail Youzhny in particular. He had a really good shot against inexperienced-at-this-level Lukasz Kubot, who, by virtue of his inexperience, has practically already given Novak Djokovic a pass into the quarters. But we have a lot of the top guys left, and so we're in for a blockbuster week!

Surprisingly, most of the top women are still in as well - the only huge names to topple have been Clijsters and Dementieva, which is not bad for the WTA these days. Both men's and women's tournaments are unpickable at the moment. It is going to be so, so interesting to see how this tournament plays out...

...I wish I was there to see it!

French Flair, French Fail

So I had another thought about Davis Cup. I've already covered the wondrousness of the Spanish team in general, for being wonderful individual players and for being a great team with a second string almost as strong as the first. We've covered this. Spain = good, no?

But... France has nearly the same amount of men in the top hundred - Spain has a few more, but not many. They've got some really excellent singles players, even if they don't have anyone quite as spesh as Rafa Nadal. They've got a pretty dedicated tennis federation.

So why isn't France doing anywhere near as well?

Spain is better. End of story. They're just awesome. But France really, really should be making it to the semis and finals. I mean, look at them! They've got Tsonga, Simon, Monfils, Gasquet - and then they've got tough doubles dudes (as in Slam-winning) like Llodra and Clement to add to their singles string. This shouldn't be a weak team at all. And yet they keep freaking losing.

This isn't the most coherent ramble, so I'm sorry if this next bit doesn't make any sense, but I have a notion that this might have been fostered at the talent development stage. What do we know about French players? They're full of flair, they're spectacular to watch when they're on but almost painful when they're off, due to the fact that they're largely enormous headcases and tend to implode.

Surely this isn't some kind of national trait...? You can't be born this way, surely? Somewhere along the line, the French guys are trained to be this way.

Don't get me wrong - I love French tennis. But the headcase aspect of it (and the habit they have of being easily injured) is spectacularly trainwreck-y.

So that's my thesis, I guess. France should be good at Davis Cup and isn't. Make them so.

La Monf Loses (but kind of wins anyway)

I think I've begun several of my latest pieces with 'wow', so I'm deliberately refraining today, but the sentiment is still there. I so did not expect that performance from Gael Monfils.

More power to Djokovic for winning the match - kudos to Novak, who is definitely this season's Nalbandian - but it was Monfils that really caught me. I said yesterday that I totally would not be surprised if he retired injured a set or so into the match, given that the window of opportunity for him to be not injured is about the same size as John Howard's conscience. But no, he got that match all the way to a third set breaker. The Paris crowd got what they deserved - well, I'm sure that would have loved to see their homeboy La Monf win it, but they got good tennis anyway - and all is well that endeth well.

It's sad, really, that Monfils is so very rarely able to play at full capacity, because he really is completely incredible. I remember hearing once that the French sports institute (whatsoe'er they be called) runs all these tests on their players, testing them for all these different athlete things, like speed and agility and whatnot, and Monfils was so good at them he practically broke the scale. But unfortunately his aggressive, bendy style of tennis is not good friends with the body. I think he's probably doomed to be one of those people that never really quite reaches their potential - he has that semi final finish in Roland Garros from last year, but I don't think we'll ever see him get much further than that, unless he pulls a Marcos in Australia.

You know what I'd really like to see one day - speaking of Australia? A Tsonga fully fit and pressure free, like he was at the Aussie last year, taking on a fully fit and pressure free Monfils. That would be an athlete's delight, that match. I think the stadium would probably explode, ot being designed to contain that much French flair. That match would be fierce.


Today's Results

BNP Paribas Masters (Paris)

Novak Djokovic def. Gael Monfils, 6-2 5-7 7-6 (7-3)

Putting Rafa on the Couch

I bet it feels really, really great whenever Rafa Nadal beats Jo-Dub Tsonga. Rafa loses a few matches here and there, sure, but there are a few that I think really mean something to him - losses to Nalbandian, losses to Soderling, and that Australian Open 2008 loss to Tsonga.

Not that Rafa has a personal problem with Tsonga or anything, but I think that loss really messed with his head, and no matter how many times he beats him, that loss hangs with him. It really was a beatdown, and I think it freaks Rafa out that Jo-Willy has the power to do that whenever he's on fire... and Rafa doesn't know when that will be.

Totally didn't mean to embark on a Rafa psychoanalysis there, but then I don't mean to write a lot of things and I do, so there you go. Rafa is someone who really likes control, I think - certainly, tennis-wise, he plays much better when he can impose his game and control play - and Jo-Willy is someone he can't control. He knows Jo has the power there to totally eat him for breakfast... and it weirds him out that he doesn't know when that is, or when it will be, or...

...yeah, well anyway. Rafa won. He beat Jo in straights. Nice work Rafa.

Other winners include Gael Monfils, who only ever seems to win in France. What's up with that? He beat Mighty Marin and is apparently still in the running, or recently was, or something, for London, which I don't quite understand. He made quarters in Roland Garros... but what else has he done this year?


Today's Results

Rafael Nadal def. Jo-Wilfried Tsonga, 7-5 7-5
Novak Djokovic def. Robin Soderling, 6-4 1-6 6-3
Gael Monfils def. Marin Cilic, 3-6 6-4 6-4
Radek Stepanek def. Juan Martin del Potro, 4-0 retired